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Northerly Stakes Tips - Runner-by-Runner Guide for the Ascot Group 1
- Northerly Stakes runs over 1800m at Ascot under weight-for-age conditions.
- Top pick is Attrition with Storyville and Democracy Manifest as strong contenders
Expired
Attrition (Getty Images)
The Northerly Stakes is run over 1800m at Ascot racecourse in Perth under weight-for-age conditions for four-year-olds and up.
The Group 1 race has only been won by three mares in over 40 years but three of the last seven have been won by three-year-old fillies.
We’ve gone through every runner of the race below and offered our thoughts.
1. Numerian (9)
The now nine-year-old gelding has been runner twice in Group 1 races during his 46 start career and was last seen finishing 2.2 lengths off Lindermann at Group 3 level in Sydney in October.
He won a trial at Belmont by over four lengths leading into this event and he won here at Ascot this time last year.
2. Attrition (5)
Finished last in a field of four in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes which proved the right form when he came out and won the $2 million Hill Stakes at Rosehill at his next start.
Ran into trouble at a crucial stage in the Five Diamonds last time out and with clear running he would have gone close.
Drawn well and looks well placed.
3. Bustler (3)
It has been a disappointing 12 months for the 2023 Group 1 Railway Stakes winner and he faded badly to finish well off the winner two weeks ago in that same race.
Would need to find form fast to have any chance in this.
4. Casino Seventeen (17)
William Pike took an inside run in the Railway two weeks ago and his mount found plenty to storm home, finishing just over two lengths from the winner.
The step up in distance won’t be a concern but barrier 17 might cause some issues.
5. Light Infantry Man (15)
Started favourite in the Railway off the back of an enormous win in the Chester Manifold at Flemington.
He is a horse that has always promised plenty and we thought he might be coming good but it was a hugely disappointing run two weeks ago.
Back him at your own peril.
6. Marocchino (13)
Local hope that has had three goes at Group 1 level and failed to place.
Has been well beaten in both runs this campaign so far and it doesn’t get any easier in this event although the step up in distance does suit.
7. Democracy Manifest (2)
His form in Sydney was good before the team targeted Western Australia which was astute planning.
Things didn’t go to plan in the Railway Stakes when he simply didn’t get a chance to show his excellent turn of foot and you can forget he went around.
He’s a horse that needs luck at the right time and for the pace to be on but he’s good enough to win this.
8. Let’s Galahvant (14)
The Railway Stakes was set up for swoopers with the way the race was won but Let’s Galahvant made up considerable ground late in the race to finish just over a length from the winner.
He’s never started over 1800m but everything points to the horse thriving and he’s a very backable price at his current odds.
9. Mojo Rhythm (10)
Broke through for the seventh win of his career in the Group 3 RJ Peters Stakes at Ascot two back.
Like the horse above he made up plenty of ground late in the Railway Stakes and will be ready to peak now at his fifth start this prep.
10. River Rubicon (12)
Is yet to win a black type race during his 35 start careers and has been well beaten in his last three at a lower level.
11. Currimundi (18)
Was beaten half a length in the Listed Northam Cup three back but has failed to place in his last couple.
This is a big step up in class and barrier 18 won’t help his already slim chances.
12. Zipaway (4)
Placed twice at Group 2 level during the autumn in Melbourne and wasn’t far away in both the Lee Steere Stakes and Railway Stakes so far this campaign.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Steven Parnham settles him closer to the speed from barrier four with the blinkers going back on and he represents good value at his current price.
13. Admiration Express (11)
The grey five-year-old mare has been up for a very long time this campaign but has shown little to suggest she is up to winning a race of this quality.
14. Super Smink (6)
The punters have found her after a sensational and eye-catching performance from well back in the field to finish third in the Railway Stakes two weeks ago.
She’s a very progressive type who has been well supported in early betting.
The step up in distance for the first time is a concern but she’s flying.
15. Socks Nation (8)
Another progressive mare who was excellent when third in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes at Flemington before heading west.
She was a sitting duck on speed in the Railway but I was impressed with the way she kept finding the line to be beaten only two lengths.
Declan Bates again steers and I would be willing to give her another chance especially with the extra distance.
16. Storyville (1)
Fillies have a really good record in this race and Storyville brings a different form line into the race compared to the majority of this field.
She’s won four from seven overall including her last two in a row and will be required to carry just 50kg with William Pike piloting.
Verdict
1st: No. 2 Attrition
2nd: No. 16 Storyville
3rd: No. 7 Democracy Manifest
4th: No. 15 Socks Nation
2nd: No. 16 Storyville
3rd: No. 7 Democracy Manifest
4th: No. 15 Socks Nation
Attrition
Each-Way
@4/1 - 3 Units
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