Northerly Stakes Tips - Can local filly make the step up in last Group 1 in Australia for 2025?

The Northerly Stakes will be held on Saturday December 7 at Ascot and is the last Group 1 in Australia for 2024.  

It is the Victorian galloper, Attrition, that is vying for favouritism with the locally trained filly, Storyville. Democracy Manifest, Super Smink and Light Infantry Man are among the other main chances. 

Attrition claimed the Group 2 Hill Stakes (1800m) at Rosehill two starts ago and has since placed 4th in the Five Diamonds (1800m), going 8.5 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which is the best last start benchmark figure of any runner. 

Nine of the field of 18 come out of the Railway Stakes (1600m) at Ascot, including Super Smink, who was 3rd, going 5.1 lenghts faster than standard. She came home with he fastest last 400m and 200m. 

Other performances of note came from Let’s Galahvant, who ran on for 5th. Socks Nation overraced up front before fading into 10th. Light Infantry Man could only manage 12th but never really had much room. Democracy Manifest was held-up at different times and was 14th. 

Storyville will be going for a hat-trick of wins and claimed the WA Guineas (1600m) at her most recent start, going 4.5 lenghts faster than standard. She might need to improve that figure but has upside and will be ridden by William Pike. 

Pace in this race could be a bit muddling with a number of these that like to get back. Marocchino might take up the running alongside Socks Nation, while Numerian can also position handy. 

Storyville draws the inside and might settle three back. Look for Pike to weave a passage late. Attrition draws barrier 5 and can settle just forward of midfield. Democracy Manifest also draws low. Light Infantry Man draws barrier 15 and Ethan Brown will look to find cover in the second half early on. 

Storyville is the top three-year-old in Perth after her two recent wins and gives every indication that the 1800m should suit. She has been back in recent times but has been good enough to do it off a very slow tempo two starts ago before handling a faster tempo last time, coming home with the fastest last 400m in both. This is a step up but she draws to save ground from the inside barrier and ticks boxes with Pike to ride. 

I was keen on Socks Nation heading into the Railway Stakes but things didn't quite pan out with the Ciaron Maher-trained mare overracing early on before fading into 10th position, beaten just over two lengths. She is capable of much better and there are no issues with the slight step up in distance as she is a Group 1 winner over the 2200m. The four-year-old draws much better this time around and shouldn't have to work too hard early on with the tempo likely to be even or slower. She just needs to settle better and form prior to her Railway performance was first class with a placing behind Atishu and Amelia’s Jewel.