Cox Plate 2026 Betting Tips - 3 long range predictions for the 2026 Cox Plate

At the time, we selected Autumn Glow at $4 as our Best Bet, Half Yours at $11 as our Next Best and Zambardo at $26 as the Best Value.

Autumn Glow remains among the Cox Plate acceptors, but everything about her confirmed spring program points towards connections keeping her around 1600m. Zambardo also drops out of our updated selections.

Half Yours remains, although he has drifted to $26 and moves into the Best Value position.

Here are our updated predictions for the 2026 Cox Plate.

Autumn Boy takes over as our Best Bet for the Cox Plate at $7.50 and his performance in the Makybe Diva Stakes only strengthened his credentials. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old was disappointing when resuming but took a major step forward second-up at Flemington, storming home behind Sheza Alibi to finish runner-up in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes.

He was a Group 1 Caulfield Guineas winner at three and has always possessed the class to develop into a serious weight-for-age horse. His latest performance suggested he is now ready to do exactly that. The fact this year’s Cox Plate is being held at Flemington rather than Moonee Valley is another positive. We already know he handles the spacious circuit and the long Flemington straight should give him every opportunity to build momentum rather than relying on the tactical speed normally required around The Valley. There is still improvement to come as he gets beyond the mile and, at $7.50, Autumn Boy is our updated Best Bet.

Birdman comes into our updated selections at $17 after taking his form to another level during 2026. The imported galloper enjoyed an excellent autumn, winning the Group 2 Blamey Stakes over 1600m at Flemington before stepping up to 1800m and taking out the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield. He resumed with a sixth in the Memsie Stakes over 1400m, getting back before doing his best work late in a race that was always going to be short of his optimum distance.

Birdman was scratched from the Makybe Diva Stakes on September 12, so his immediate lead-up is still to be confirmed, but he remains in Cox Plate calculations. The Flemington venue is certainly no negative given his Blamey Stakes victory at headquarters and he should be much better suited as his campaign progresses towards 2000m. At $17, Birdman is our Next Best selection.

We haven’t given up on Half Yours. The 2025 Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup winner was our original Next Best at $11 and has now drifted to around $26, but that bigger quote makes him an appealing value proposition. His winter campaign produced four defeats, although his most recent performance was a solid fourth in the Q22 over 2200m at Eagle Farm. Connections have made it clear this spring is all about Flemington. Half Yours resumed in the Makybe Diva Stakes and is expected to progress to the Turnbull Stakes before tackling the Cox Plate as his final lead-up to his Melbourne Cup defence.

The unusual placement of the Cox Plate at Flemington makes the race particularly interesting for Half Yours. He has already won the Melbourne Cup at the track and showed in last year’s Caulfield Cup that he possesses more acceleration than the typical dour stayer. The Cox Plate trip is obviously short of his ultimate optimum distance, but Flemington gives him considerably more opportunity to wind up than The Valley would have. At $26, Half Yours replaces Zambardo as our Best Value selection.

Autumn Glow was our original $4 Best Bet and, while she has continued to prove herself one of Australia’s best horses, the Cox Plate now appears unlikely to be her target.

Her unbeaten run came to an end when Sir Delius defeated her in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m during the autumn. She returned with a brilliant Winx Stakes victory, but connections have subsequently confirmed a program built around the 1600m 7 Stakes and King Charles III Stakes before a yet-to-be-determined race at Flemington during Cup Week.

Half Yours remains in our selections but moves from Next Best at $11 to Best Value at $26.

Zambardo, our original $26 Best Value selection, drops out