Melbourne Cup 2026 Betting Tips - 3 long range predictions for the 2026 Melbourne Cup
- 2026 Melbourne Cup scheduled for Tuesday November 3, featuring the worlds best stayers.
- The 2025 winner, Half Yours, is favourite in early markets
- Key meetings in mid-2026 will shape markets with European stayers in action
- Middle Earth ran 3rd in the Melbourne Cup in 2025
The 2026 Melbourne Cup is set to be run and won on the Tuesday November 3 in 2026 and a number of familiar names feature in the long-range futures markets that are available.
- Half Yours – Best Bet
- Middle Earth – Next Best
- Strictly Business – Best Value
- What Happened To Our Original Melbourne Cup Tips?
Nine months on from our original long-range Melbourne Cup predictions, two of the three horses we identified remain firmly in the picture.
Back in December we selected 2025 Melbourne Cup placegetter Middle Earth as our Best Bet at $26, Strictly Business as our Next Best at $26 and Sunset Park as our $101 outsider.
Middle Earth remains at essentially the same price and has done nothing to diminish our confidence, while Strictly Business is now available at around $51.
Sunset Park has not been nominated and drops out, while defending champion Half Yours is the obvious addition to the updated selections.
Half Yours – Best Bet
Half Yours takes over as our Best Bet at $10 as he attempts to become the first horse since Makybe Diva to win successive Melbourne Cups. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained gelding produced one of the performances of last spring when completing the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double and we already know that 3200m at Flemington holds no fears.
His subsequent Queensland campaign didn't produce another victory, but there were excuses given the distances and timing of some of those runs, and he finished the preparation with a solid fourth in the Q22 over 2200m at Eagle Farm. The McEvoys have made no secret that everything this spring revolves around another Melbourne Cup.
He resumed over the unsuitable 1600m in the Makybe Diva Stakes but was solid late and is expected to progress to the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m before tackling the Cox Plate, which is being run at Flemington this year, as his final lead-up to the Cup. The obvious obstacle is the additional weight he will receive as defending champion, but he has already proven he has the class, acceleration and stamina required to win Australia's greatest race. At $10, Half Yours is our updated Best Bet.
Middle Earth – Next Best
Middle Earth was our original Best Bet at $26 and can still be backed at around the same price. The 2025 Melbourne Cup third-placegetter returned to winning form during the Brisbane winter when taking out the Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap over 2000m at Doomben. That performance was significant because it showed he had settled properly into Australian racing after his first local preparation. Ethan Brown also suggested after the victory that Middle Earth was improving with age and would only get better as he stepped out over longer distances.
He resumed this spring with an eighth in the Heatherlie Stakes at Caulfield over 1700m, a trip well short of what he ultimately wants. There is no concern about his ability to stay the Melbourne Cup distance. He has already finished third over the 3200m at Flemington and his Brisbane campaign showed he has returned as well as ever. We were happy to take $26 about him nine months ago and there is no reason to jump off when he remains around the same quote.
Strictly Business – Best Value
Strictly Business was originally our $26 Next Best and has now doubled in price to around $51. Her first three runs of the autumn were underwhelming, but her runner-up performance in the South Australian Derby reaffirmed her credentials as a genuine staying mare. There is also plenty to like about her Flemington profile after she won the VRC Oaks over 2500m last spring.
Trainer Thomas Carberry has confirmed the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups are the targets and believes her likely light weight can be an advantage. As a Group 1 winner over 2500m, she is already qualified for the Melbourne Cup. There is obviously still plenty of water to go under the bridge before she gets to 3200m against the best stayers in the country, but she is lightly raced, proven at Flemington and bred to stay. At $51, the price allows us to find out.
What Happened To Our Original Melbourne Cup Tips?
Our original $26 Best Bet Middle Earth remains firmly in calculations and is still available at approximately the same price.
Strictly Business also survives from the original three but has drifted from $26 to $51, making her an attractive speculative option.
Sunset Park was the real throw at the stumps at $101. She has not been nominated for the Melbourne Cup and is removed from our updated selections.
Defending champion Half Yours comes into the three and takes over as our Best Bet.
Verdict
3 long range predictions for the 2026 Melbourne Cup
Half Yours
2026 Melbourne Cup
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2026 Melbourne Cup
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Strictly Business
2026 Melbourne Cup
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