Victoria Derby Racing Tips - Sydney galloper to outlast local rivals

The traditional highlight of Derby Day has produced some outstanding winners over the years, including Efficient in 2006, who went on to win the Melbourne Cup (3200m) the following year, along with Warning, Hitotsu and Riff Rocket. Last year's winner, Observer, completed the Moonee Valley Vase and Victoria Derby double for Ciaron Maher.

The Moonee Valley Vase (2040m), run at Flemington this year, is again a key form reference, along with the Caulfield Classic (2000m), Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) and Geelong Classic (2200m).

True Rebel heads into the Derby as one of the leading contenders after taking out the Vase last Saturday. The Danny O'Brien-trained galloper has risen quickly through the grades, progressing from Benchmark 70 company to Group 2 success, and looks to have plenty of upside.

Skua was runner-up in the Vase after leading and fighting on strongly, while Vallice finished fourth. Hierarchy was further back in eighth but caught the eye with his late work and looks likely to appreciate the rise in distance.

The Sydney form is also strong, with Cormier and Stormy Marco backing up after competing in the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick. Cormier was third after setting a solid tempo out in front and fighting on well, while Stormy Marco finished fourth after making ground from the rear.

King Snitz comes through the Caulfield Classic, where he defeated Vallice and Cignetti. The Shane Jackson-trained galloper has won his past two starts and shapes as another serious contender.

Murshidi earned his place in the field by winning the Geelong Classic over the 2200m, narrowly defeating Icy You, while True Tone was third in the same race.

Quick Finish adds another dimension to the race as the only filly in the field. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained galloper has won three of her four starts, including the Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield, where she led throughout. She now faces a significant rise in class and distance against the boys.

Breeding is always an interesting consideration in the Victoria Derby, particularly with several runners tackling the 2500m for the first time. Hierarchy is by So You Think out of Group 1 winner Colette, while Cormier is by Maurice. Both have pedigrees that provide some encouragement as they step up in distance, although their performances on the track remain the more important guide.

The Derby has attracted a competitive field, although the depth does appear to drop away beyond the leading chances, with several runners coming off unplaced performances in the traditional lead-up races.

Rain is forecast for Flemington on Saturday, with the possibility of thunderstorms adding another variable to the staying contest.

The Victoria Derby is Race 7 on the Flemington programme, scheduled for 4:20pm AEDT, and is the second of three Group 1 races on Derby Day, while the Golden Eagle is set to be run and won at Randwick on the same day.

The speed map suggests an interesting tactical contest, with no obvious natural leader among the main chances. Skua, Cignetti, Quick Finish and Cold Shower are expected to race prominently, while Cormier should be able to settle around midfield from barrier 3.

Hierarchy maps further back, although barrier 4 provides Ben Melham with options to secure cover and save ground. Several leading contenders have drawn wide, including Stormy Marco in barrier 16, True Rebel in barrier 17 and Murshidi in barrier 18. Those barriers could prove significant over the 2500m, particularly if the tempo is only moderate in the early stages.

Cormier looks the best bet in the Victoria Derby. The Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich-trained colt comes into this with the best last-start benchmark figures of any runner in the field, having produced a performance 8.4 lengths faster than standard when third in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick. He set a solid tempo out in front that day and stuck on strongly before being overhauled late, finishing behind Proxima Dea and Global Goal. He has been competing against the best three-year-olds in Sydney, including appearances in the Golden Rose (1400m) and Gloaming Stakes (1800m), and the strength of that form is a major positive. The son of Maurice has the profile of a horse capable of stretching out to the 2500m, while barrier 3 should allow Jamie Mott to secure a favourable position without having to work too hard early. He has attracted market support since the barrier draw and looks well placed to claim the Group 1.

Hierarchy looks an appealing value runner in the Victoria Derby. The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained colt has continued to improve as he has stepped up in distance, winning his maiden over the 1400m at Cranbourne before improving nine lengths on benchmark figures when fourth in a Benchmark 70 at Caulfield. He then improved another five lengths when eighth in the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) at Flemington last Saturday, producing the fastest final 200m of any runner despite finishing outside the placings. The son of So You Think is out of outstanding Group 1-winning mare Colette and shapes as a genuine staying prospect who should appreciate the rise to the 2500m. He draws beautifully in barrier 4, with Ben Melham taking the ride, and looks capable of taking another significant step forward. At around the $13 quote, he represents good value.