Empire Rose Stakes Racing Tips - Lady Shenandoah the standout in last of three Group 1 races on Derby Day

The Chris Waller-trained mare is the class runner of the field and comes off an outstanding victory in the Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield, where she carried 58kg to victory. She had previously finished fourth in both the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) and Winx Stakes (1400m), and looks well placed returning to mares' company.

Idle Flyer is another major contender, although the Matthew Smith-trained mare is backing up just seven days after finishing fifth in The Invitation (1400m) at Randwick. She has been racing consistently in strong company throughout her preparation and will be looking to turn the tables on Lady Shenandoah after defeating her in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) during the autumn.

Surfin' Bird is one of the most interesting runners after taking out the Crystal Mile (1600m) at Flemington last Saturday. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained mare has been racing in excellent form and is capable of settling prominently, which could prove an advantage depending on how the track is playing.

Unleeshing also brings strong Sydney form into the race after winning the Angst Stakes (1600m) at Randwick. The Bjorn Baker-trained mare is particularly effective on Soft and Heavy ground, and any rain would enhance her prospects.

Sass Appeal was runner-up in the Stocks Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield after leading and being run down late, while Concord Connie finished third in the Tristarc Stakes (1400m). Both are capable of racing handy and could play an important role in the early stages.

Pillow Fight is another coming down from Sydney after finishing runner-up in the Angst Stakes, while Pondalowie backs up after finishing sixth in the Crystal Mile last weekend.

Salty Pearl comes through the Toorak Handicap, while Cilacap was fifth in the Blazer Stakes (1400m) at Flemington earlier in the spring.

The Empire Rose has produced some big-priced winners in recent years, and interstate-trained runners have enjoyed considerable success, with New South Wales-based horses claiming 11 of the past 24 editions.

The weather could be a significant factor, with between 4mm and 20mm of rain forecast for Melbourne on Saturday and thunderstorms possible. Several runners are proven on rain-affected ground, while others would prefer conditions to remain relatively dry.

The Empire Rose Stakes is Race 8 on the Flemington programme, scheduled for 5pm AEDT, and is the third and final Group 1 race on Derby Day, while north of the border, Randwick hosts the Golden Eagle meeting in Sydney. 

2026 Empire Rose Stakes Speed Map

The speed map suggests Sass Appeal is the most likely leader, with Surfin' Bird and Pillow Fight expected to race prominently.

Lady Shenandoah should be able to settle around midfield from barrier 8, while Idle Flyer and Salty Pearl are also expected to race in that part of the field.

Unleeshing, Cilacap and Pondalowie may settle further back, with Concord Connie likely to be ridden quietly before looking to finish strongly.

There does not appear to be an abundance of early speed, which could allow Sass Appeal to control the tempo if she can find the front without too much pressure.

Lady Shenandoah looks the standout selection in the Empire Rose Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained mare was outstanding when winning the Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield last time out, carrying 58kg and producing a performance approximately 14 lengths faster than standard. She comes into this fourth-up and has demonstrated her ability to maintain or improve her benchmark figures at the corresponding stage of previous preparations. During the autumn, she improved by approximately one length when runner-up behind Idle Flyer in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m), despite being inconvenienced early and working forward to settle handy on a strong tempo. She stuck on exceptionally well to be beaten just a length, with Idle Flyer enjoying a more favourable run. The pair look the class runners of this field, but Lady Shenandoah is the fresher of the two and should be ready to peak. James McDonald takes the ride from barrier 8 and she looks a deserved favourite.

2026 Empire Rose Stakes Value Bet- Sass Appeal

 

Sass Appeal looks an excellent value runner in the Empire Rose Stakes. The Danny O'Brien-trained mare has an outstanding record at Flemington, winning four of her five starts at the track, and comes into this with a preparation that closely resembles the campaign in which she produced her career-best performance. She was runner-up in the Stocks Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield last time out after leading and being run down late, while two starts earlier she finished fourth in the Tontonan Stakes (1400m), producing a performance approximately 13 lengths faster than standard. During the autumn, she improved significantly when stepping out to the 1600m at Flemington fifth-up, producing benchmark figures approximately 14 lengths faster than standard after a month between runs. She follows an almost identical pattern here, returning to Flemington over the 1600m after a similar break between starts. Damian Lane rides from barrier 5 and should be able to position her on or near the speed. She would prefer the track to remain relatively dry, but her outstanding record at Flemington makes her well worth considering at double-figure odds.