Flemington Racing Tips for October 31 – Big day in store for James McDonald

Three Group 1 races headline the nine-race programme, including the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), Victoria Derby (2500m) and Empire Rose Stakes (1600m).

There is some uncertainty surrounding the weather, with showers and thunderstorms forecast for Melbourne and the possibility of between 4mm and 20mm of rain. The timing and amount of rainfall could have a significant bearing on track conditions.

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which also feature in our daily selections.

Pericles looks a strong chance in Race 5 at Flemington. The Godolphin galloper has had two runs this preparation, both over the 1200m, and has been closing off well without threatening the winners. He gives the impression that he is looking for the 1400m to 1600m distance range, and this race could be a stepping stone towards the Champions Mile (1600m) next weekend. He was outstanding when narrowly beaten by Ceolwulf in that race last year, producing a performance approximately 17 lengths faster than standard when fourth-up. He had little chance of making up significant ground in the Sydney Stakes (1200m) at Randwick last time out, settling back in a race where the tempo made it difficult for the swoopers, but still managed to finish within two lengths of the winner. He should strip fitter third-up and will appreciate the return to Flemington and the rise to the 1400m. Jason Collett takes the ride and strikes at 26% for the Bjorn Baker stable, providing a 35% profit on turnover for punters. Barrier 3 should allow him to settle in a favourable position and he looks capable of running over the top of them late.

St Gotthard looks the one to beat in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m). The Chris Waller-trained colt has been excellent in two runs this preparation, finishing runner-up behind Warwoven in both the Run To The Rose (1200m) and Golden Rose (1400m). He was particularly unlucky when resuming, encountering interference on a couple of occasions before going down by just half a length, while his latest performance produced benchmark figures approximately 12 lengths faster than standard, the best last-start figures of any runner in this field. He should be ready to peak third-up, with the addition of blinkers another positive, while the drop from 1400m to 1200m is a proven formula in this race. James McDonald rides from barrier 6 and the colt has attracted significant market support since the barrier draw. He looks a strong winning chance.

Lady Shenandoah looks the best bet in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m). The Chris Waller-trained mare was outstanding when taking out the Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield last time out, carrying 58kg and producing a performance approximately 14 lengths faster than standard. She returns to mares' company and looks well placed to continue her excellent form. The four-year-old comes into this fourth-up and has demonstrated her ability to maintain or improve her benchmark figures at the corresponding stage of previous preparations. She was runner-up behind Idle Flyer in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) during the autumn after enduring a difficult run on a strong tempo, and there is little between the pair on their best form. However, Lady Shenandoah is the fresher of the two and looks poised to peak. James McDonald rides from barrier 8 and she should prove very hard to beat.

Flying For Fun can end Derby Day on a winning note in Race 9 at Flemington. The Bryce Heys-trained mare has had two runs this preparation and was excellent when runner-up behind Jigsaw in the Schillaci Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield last time out. She settled just worse than midfield in a race run at a relatively moderate early tempo before producing the fastest final 400m and 200m of any runner. That followed a seventh placing in The Shorts (1100m) at Randwick when resuming. She has previously performed well at Flemington, finishing runner-up in the Linlithgow Stakes (1200m) when third-up last spring after encountering interference early before flashing home late. She reaches the same stage of her preparation here and should appreciate what looks likely to be a strong tempo up front. James McDonald takes the ride from barrier 16, which should suit her racing pattern down the straight. The main query is how much rain arrives, but provided she handles the conditions, she looks capable of finishing over the top of them.