Coolmore Stud Stakes Racing Tips - Waller & McDonald combination to prevail again on Derby Day

The $2 million feature has established itself as a stallion-making race, with outstanding winners over the years including Zoustar and Switzerland. Last year's winner, Tentyris, added his name to the honour roll, while this year's field features some interesting family connections to previous winners.

St Gotthard is a brother to 2024 winner Switzerland, while Steel Will is a sibling to 2020 winner September Run. Both are trained by Chris Waller, who has enjoyed remarkable success in the race with six previous victories.

There are several important lead-up races to consider, with the Danehill Stakes (1100m) at Flemington and Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) in Sydney traditionally providing strong form references.

The Next Episode comes through the Danehill Stakes, producing a powerful finishing burst to defeat Natural Fling and Mbube. The Ciaron Maher-trained colt has been well supported in early betting and looks one of the major chances.

Satono Glow was impressive in taking out the Roman Consul Stakes, while Steel Will finished runner-up after racing keenly. Paradoxium was fourth in that race after working hard on the speed, while The Machine Gun finished further back.

The Golden Rose (1400m) form is particularly interesting, with St Gotthard finishing runner-up behind Warwoven, who subsequently franked the form by winning the Caulfield Guineas (1600m). Under Focus was third in the Golden Rose after racing on a strong tempo and also has claims.

Natural Fling was runner-up in the Danehill Stakes, while Mbube was unlucky in finishing third after being held up between the 400m and 200m. Alibaba finished fourth in the same race.

Doubt Time comes through the Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m), finishing third after taking time to wind up, while Pembrey is one of the fillies taking on the boys after winning the Silver Shadow Stakes (1200m) earlier in the spring.

The Coolmore Stud Stakes is Race 6 on the Flemington programme, scheduled for 3:40pm AEDT, and is the first of three Group 1 races on Derby Day.

The speed map suggests Paradoxium and Pembrey are the most likely leaders, with Natural Fling also capable of racing prominently.

St Gotthard and Stretan Ruler should settle just behind the speed, while Under Focus, Steel Will and The Machine Gun are likely to be positioned around midfield.

The Next Episode is expected to settle towards the rear from barrier 14 before looking to unleash his customary finishing burst.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the weather, with showers and thunderstorms forecast for Melbourne. The amount and timing of any rain could have a significant bearing on how the Flemington straight plays.

St Gotthard looks the best bet in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained colt comes into this with the best last-start benchmark figures of any runner, having produced a performance approximately 12 lengths faster than standard when runner-up in the Golden Rose (1400m). He was also severely unlucky when resuming over the 1200m in the Run To The Rose, encountering interference on a couple of occasions before finishing just half a length behind Warwoven. The son of Zoustar should be ready to peak third-up, while the addition of blinkers is another positive. The drop from 1400m to 1200m is a proven formula in this race, with Waller's former star Zoustar successful in 2013 and In Secret also completing the transition after finishing runner-up in the Golden Rose in 2022. James McDonald takes the ride from barrier 6, and the market support since the barrier draw adds further confidence. He looks the one to beat.

Under Focus appeals as the value runner in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. The Kris Lees-trained colt comes through the Golden Rose (1400m), where he raced on a strong tempo before sticking on well for third behind Warwoven and St Gotthard. He was also third in the Run To The Rose (1200m) at his previous outing and has demonstrated that he can compete with some of the best three-year-olds in the country. Blake Shinn takes the ride and has an excellent record for the stable, striking at 27% and providing a 26% profit on turnover for punters. The son of King's Legacy draws barrier 1, which could prove advantageous if the inside section of the straight is holding up. It will be worth monitoring the early races, but at double-figure odds he looks capable of featuring in the finish.