Crown Oaks Racing Tips – Quick Finish to outlast them in Fillies classic

The traditional staying test for three-year-old fillies has attracted an intriguing mix of Sydney and Melbourne form, with unbeaten Group 1 winner Proxima Dea heading the market ahead of Wakeful Stakes (2000m) winner De Armas and Victoria Derby (2500m) placegetter Quick Finish. 

The race has a rich history of producing outstanding fillies, with recent winners including Treasurethe Moment, Zardozi and Strictly Business.

Proxima Dea is the $2.60 favourite after her dominant victory against the colts and geldings in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on October 24. The David Payne-trained filly settled outside the leader before powering clear in the straight, recording a performance approximately 9.4 lengths faster than standard benchmark. That was the best last-start figure of any runner in this field, and she has now won all five career starts. The daughter of Tarzino looks ideally suited by the rise to 2500m, although barrier 19 presents a significant challenge. Zac Lloyd retains the ride and faces an interesting tactical decision given the presence of several other runners capable of racing forward.

De Armas is the $3.30 second favourite after claiming the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Derby Day. The Chris Waller-trained filly settled around midfield before producing a powerful finish to defeat Girl With A Pearl and Icelady, with the race run at a solid tempo. Her performance was approximately eight lengths faster than standard benchmark, and she demonstrated an obvious liking for the wide expanses of Flemington. The Wakeful has traditionally been one of the strongest lead-up races to the Oaks, and De Armas must be respected following such an authoritative victory. James McDonald takes the ride from barrier one, which should allow her to enjoy an economical passage before being produced late.

Quick Finish is an interesting contender at $13 after taking the unusual path of tackling the boys in the Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) on Saturday. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained filly settled handy to a strong tempo and stuck on exceptionally well for third, suggesting she has the stamina required for another demanding staying contest. She had previously won the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield, continuing a rapid progression that began with a victory on the Ballarat synthetic track in August. She has led or settled handy throughout her five-start career and returns to her own sex from barrier five. With Jye McNeil aboard, she should enjoy a favourable run near the speed and appeals as one of the better chances in an intriguing edition of the Oaks.

Icelady is another leading contender at $6.50 after finishing third in the Wakeful Stakes. The Ciaron Maher-trained filly was responsible for much of the early speed and did well to stick on after setting a solid tempo. She draws barrier four with Ethan Brown aboard and should again be prominent, although she faces competition for the lead from Quick Finish and Waiheke Rose. The latter is a $31 chance and draws barrier six, while Proxima Dea is another who can race forward despite her wide draw. The presence of several on-speed runners should ensure the Oaks develops into a genuine staying contest.

There are several other runners with claims through the traditional lead-up races. Shameful Impulse caught the eye when producing the fastest final 200m of the Wakeful Stakes to finish fifth, while Churchill Rose finished fourth and is another who may appreciate the rise in distance. Salann finished third in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m), which was run at Flemington on Cox Plate Day, with the race approximately six lengths faster than standard benchmark. Joely was further back in seventh, while Refuse To Curtsy comes through the Ethereal Stakes, having finished third behind Quick Finish. Your Colour and Tharwa will be looking to improve on disappointing performances in the Wakeful, although the form from that race appears particularly strong heading into Thursday.

Quick Finish looks the likely leader in the Crown Oaks after racing prominently throughout her five-start career. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained filly draws barrier five and should have little trouble finding the front or settling right on the speed under Jye McNeil. Waiheke Rose is another who can race forward from barrier six, while Icelady draws barrier four and may again be ridden positively after leading the Wakeful Stakes at a solid tempo. Proxima Dea has shown she can race prominently, but barrier 19 creates a significant tactical dilemma for Zac Lloyd. He may elect to press forward early rather than risk being caught wide, which could generate plenty of pressure through the opening stages.

De Armas should settle somewhere around midfield after being ridden patiently in the Wakeful, with James McDonald likely to take advantage of barrier one to conserve ground. Churchill Rose is another who can settle in the midfield division, while Shameful Impulse should be ridden conservatively from barrier eight before looking to finish strongly. The presence of Quick Finish, Waiheke Rose, Icelady and Proxima Dea suggests the pace should be genuine, particularly if the favourite is asked to work across from her wide gate. Quick Finish looks capable of controlling proceedings from a favourable draw, although the pressure applied through the middle stages could prove decisive. If the leaders overdo things, De Armas and Shameful Impulse are among those who can benefit late in the straight.

Quick Finish appeals as the best bet in the Crown Oaks at $13 after an excellent third against the boys in the Victoria Derby (2500m) on Saturday. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained filly settled handy to a strong tempo and stuck on well, demonstrating that she has the stamina to handle the trip. She had previously won the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield and has made significant improvement since breaking her maiden on the Ballarat synthetic track in August. She returns to her own sex, draws favourably in barrier five and should enjoy a much more economical run than some of her key rivals. Jye McNeil can take up a prominent position without doing too much work early, and if she can reproduce her Derby performance, she will take plenty of catching.

Shameful Impulse might be worth a small wager at a big price in the Crown Oaks, with $61 available in the early market. The Rob Blacker-trained filly has only one win to her credit, which came in a maiden at Wodonga in September, but she has been solid without being spectacular in two of the key lead-up races. She stepped straight from 1400m to 2000m in the Ethereal Stakes and could only manage ninth, but looked much better suited to the wide expanses of Flemington in the Wakeful Stakes, closing strongly to finish fifth with the fastest final 200m of the race. She draws barrier eight with William Pike aboard and should be able to settle back with cover before being produced late. The tempo looks genuine with Quick Finish, Waiheke Rose, Icelady and Proxima Dea all capable of racing forward, and if they overcook things up front, Shameful Impulse is one who can benefit late in the piece.