Flemington Racing Tips for November 5 – Cavalry Girl to light up Flemington in the last on Oaks Day

Don't mind Bon Fete at a big price in the opener at Flemington, provided the first emergency gains a start. The mare resumed at Cranbourne late last month and was better than her finishing position suggests. She was checked at the start and forced to settle back in a slowly run race before producing some of the fastest sectionals between the 800m and 200m, only to be disappointed for a run over the final 200m when she appeared to have plenty more to offer. There is a sense she has been set for this race, having contested the corresponding event last year when producing an eye-catching fourth behind First Chorus. She has improved on benchmark figures at her second run back from a spell in each of her past two preparations and should appreciate stepping up to 1700m. Barrier five looks ideal, and if she gains a start, she is worth a play at the odds.

Going with Sass Appeal in the Inglis Bracelet. The Danny O'Brien-trained mare has been a model of consistency, finishing in the first four in all 10 career starts, winning five and finishing runner-up twice. She contested the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) on Saturday and performed well in finishing fourth behind Lady Shenandoah, recording a figure 12 lengths faster than standard benchmark. She has won four of her six starts at Flemington, including a dominant victory in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes (1600m) back in March, when she produced a figure 14 lengths faster than standard at a similar stage of her preparation. The outside barrier is the obvious concern, but there doesn't appear to be a great deal of pressure drawn inside her, and she should be able to work across and enjoy a breather. She is rock-hard fit, handles both good and soft ground, and looks the one to beat.

Pretty keen on Rosa Aotearoa in the Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final. The five-year-old has had two runs this preparation and needed the hit-out when finishing eighth over 1100m at Caulfield first-up before improving sharply when stepping up to 1400m at Bendigo last time. He settled handy on that occasion and was only narrowly denied by Balmazian, whom he meets 2kg better at the weights here. He improved by 10 lengths on benchmark figures when third-up last preparation, finishing fifth over 1200m at Flemington, and looks ready to produce another peak performance. The son of Dundeel has shown that his best distance range is 1400m and beyond, and he tackles the 1600m for the first time here. He should appreciate the rise in trip and draws to settle handy. Expect him to be in the contest for a long way.

An excellent race to finish Oaks Day, with some talented sprinters set to scorch down the Flemington straight in the Century Stakes (1000m). Cavalry Girl just keeps on keeping on, having won five of her eight starts this preparation and finished runner-up in the other three. She has been producing some enormous benchmark figures, including a narrow second in the Moir Stakes (1000m), when she went almost 15 lengths faster than standard, before leading throughout to win at Group 2 level over 1000m at Caulfield last time, recording a figure around 17 lengths faster than standard. Those are outstanding numbers. The only real question is whether she can reproduce that form down the Flemington straight, but she has already won twice at the track and trip, including when leading throughout at the New Year's Eve meeting last year. She is going considerably better now and draws towards the grandstand side, which has been the preferred part of the straight course. Craig Williams takes the ride and has an excellent record for the stable, striking at 37% and returning a 66% profit on investment. She should roll forward and take plenty of catching.