The Everest Tips - Can Ka Ying Rising conquer the Everest?

Now worth $20 million and officially Group 1, this year’s renewal brings together the Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising and a formidable army of Australian sprinters all chasing immortality at Randwick.

Ka Ying Rising ($1.80) is the story of the race. The Hong Kong Horse of the Year is unbeaten in his past 11 starts, and his benchmark figures are freakish — he’s produced double-digit ratings in each of his last 10 runs, including a personal best +16.6 and a +11.5 last-start figure when cruising to victory first-up under 61 kg. 

That run confirmed he’d lost none of his brilliance, coasting home with gas in the tank. Trainer David Hayes has been glowing in his praise, and barrier 7 gives Zac Purton the freedom to either sit handy or track the hot speed. If he brings his Hong Kong form to Randwick, the Everest mountain could already be his.

Among the locals, the formlines are rich and varied. War Machine and Angel Capital share the best last-start benchmark ratings of the domestic brigade, both running +14.7 lengths faster than standard. War Machine’s Gilgai Stakes (1200m) win at Flemington was pure power — first-up at 60 kg, he rocketed home late, showing a 10-length-plus closing figure that stacks up with the world’s best. 

The Hayes brothers (Ben, Will & JD) have timed his Everest tilt perfectly. Angel Capital, meanwhile, was luckless in the Rupert Clarke Stakes — caught in traffic, never clear — yet still posted elite data. If he sees daylight, he’s a genuine upset hope at big odds.

Joliestar ($6) leads the home defence for Chris Waller. One of four runners for the stable, she’s fresh off an 11.7-length-above-standard victory in The Shorts, sitting wide without cover from the 600m but still sprinting home in a sizzling 21.72 last 400 m. 

She beat Briasa that day, and both have maintained their form since. Joliestar has drawn well enough to stalk the leaders, and Waller’s Everest record speaks for itself — he knows how to peak his sprinters for the hill. Lady Shenandoah adds depth to the Waller team, bringing consistency and a lethal finish.

The Victorian charge is fronted by War Machine, as mentioned, but backed by a line-up that includes Briasa and Jimmysstar, who filled the quinella in the Premiere Stakes. Tempted, Godolphin’s chosen three-year-old, is the race’s X-factor — trying to join Yes Yes Yes and Giga Kick as the only three-year-olds to conquer The Everest. Her third in the Golden Rose was full of merit, and her earlier win over Beiwacht shows she belongs.

With Hong Kong’s champion, Australia’s fastest, and the next generation all colliding, this year’s Everest has the makings of a race for the ages.

Expect a red-hot tempo from the outset. Overpass should spear forward from the middle, intent on leading as usual, with Tempted punching up from the inside. War Machine and Ka Ying Rising look perfectly placed just off the pace, poised to pounce turning for home. Joliestar and Lady Shenandoah map ideally in the one-out, one-back line; Angel Capital, Briasa, and Magic Time will bide their time behind the speed and look to unleash late. The Randwick straight always rewards patience — whoever blends into the race at the 300 m without losing momentum will be the one in the frame.

Ka Ying Rising — The Hong Kong superstar has the numbers, the record and the aura. His first-up win was simply breathtaking: +11.5 benchmark with 61 kg, throttled down late. He’s versatile, perfectly drawn, and arrives with global form that eclipses anything on home soil. If he handles Randwick’s rise, he wins.

War Machine — The local hope with the data to match it with Ka Ying Rising. His Gilgai Stakes win was backed by a +14.7 benchmark, the best Australian figure heading into this race. Maps for a soft trail behind the leaders and has the closing burst to make it interesting if the favourite leaves the door open.