Caulfield Cup Tips - Half Yours the one to beat in the first of the Melbourne majors

The 2025 Caulfield Cup (2400m) promises to be a gripping, world-class contest — a melting pot of Australia’s toughest stayers, hardened internationals and a Japanese wildcard with personality to burn. 

Half Yours ($2.60) is favourite for the $5 million Handicap. The Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained chestnut stamped his Cup credentials with a strong 4th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m), doing his best work late in a race controlled up front. 

The Flemington Group 1 is probably the best pointer in terms of local lead up races and seven of the 18 runners come through the October 4 feature. Half Yours was the best of them, clocking the fastest last 200m and drops 4.5kg into this. That combination of late speed + weight relief screams Caulfield Cup.

From the staying yardstick side of the ledger, Valiant King arrives with the best last-start benchmark figure of any runner, having gone 17.8 lengths faster than standard winning The Bart Cummings (2520m) — a race lit up by the suicidal tempo set by tearaway (and eventual 3rd) Gilded Water. 

Horses coming from that drag-race deserve context: the shape exaggerated figures for those who coped, and Revelare (7th) was one who paid for it, pulling up with a poor recovery and never looking comfortable in the burn. Forgive runs out of that cauldron.

Sydney’s staying path also feeds neatly into this Cup: three arrive from The Metropolitan (2400m) — Royal Supremacy (winner), Vauban (5th) and Birdman (7th) — bringing race-fit 2400m form. Royal Supremacy’s profile is that of a progressive local who can park midfield and launch; Vauban is the class-laden Irish stayer who will relish a truly-run 2400m at Caulfield and strip better second-up in Australia.

International depth is real. It’s four raiders this year — Presage Nocturne, Meydaan, Absurde and Golden Snap. Meydaan ($8) adds global gravitas with Andrea Atzeni flying in; he’s a genuine mile-and-a-half horse with tactical speed for Caulfield’s contours. 

Absurde brings tough Irish handicapping nous and a rider hungry for a big-race breakthrough. Golden Snap ($18) is the mercurial Japanese mare: lightly weighted (53.5kg), proven at 2400m at home, and handled Caulfield in a sharp course-proper look — if she settles, she’s dangerous. And Presage Nocturne profiles like the stalking Euro who can pinch lengths around the turns if the map falls his way.

Lurking among the locals is Buckaroo ($11) — last year’s runner-up who pulled out a strong 3rd in the Might And Power (2000m) last week. He’s tough, race-fit, and thrives off deep tempo. Royal Supremacy ($10), with Robbie Dolan, continues to climb and owns a Metro win at the trip. Vauban ($11) needs no introduction — elite staying profile, and Blake Shinn is a perfect Cup pilot. Middle Earth ($15) brings late power; if they go hard, he’s storming into it.

Between the Turnbull cohort, the Bart Cummings blowtorch, and the Metropolitan graduates, this is a data-rich Caulfield Cup — and the threads keep pointing back to Half Yours as the horse with the right blend of turn-of-foot, weight and platform.

Not sure they will go as hard as the Bart Cummings but we will see a better tempo than the Turnbull. The internationals won’t want to be posted: Meydaan and Presage Nocturne can be positive early, Absurde handy with cover, while locals like Half Yours should land stalking the speed. Buckaroo and Royal Supremacy map beautifully midfield with cover, conserving for a 600m surge. Vauban, Middle Earth and Golden Snap are likely to build from the back half, sweeping from the 800m when the pressure comes on.

Revelare can settle front half if he jumps; in a more controlled Cup (nothing like the Bart Cummings scorch), he’ll travel kinder and present earlier. Caulfield punishes wide, long runs if the move is too soon — timing the slingshot off the turn is everything.

Half Yours — This sets up perfectly. The lightly raced son of St Jean was dominant in the Caloundra Cup (2400m) at his only go at the trip and finally gets back to 2400m. His lead-ups have been immaculate, including a dominant Naturalism (2000m) win at the track two back by nearly four lengths, returning a 13.2 lengths faster than standard figure. Jamie Melham can park him in the prime lane and unleash that last-200m surge with 4.5kg less than he carried in the Turnbull. He’s the one they have to beat. 

Revelare — A forgive from The Bart Cummings where the suicidal tempo fried plenty and he pulled up with issues. Prior to that he’d done little wrong, including a strong Caulfield win three back. 53.5kg, bred to stay (So You Think x Zabeel mare), and likely to map front half in a more evenly-run Cup. If he’s bounced out of Flemington, there’s upside at a price to be a serious threat late.