The Everest Racing Tips – Tempted can end Ka Ying Rising’s unbeaten run

The headline act is Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising, who returns to defend his crown after an extraordinary 12 months, although the prospect of a rain-affected track adds an intriguing twist to what promises to be another spectacular edition of the Group 1 sprint.

Ka Ying Rising ($1.55) has established himself as the world's highest-rated racehorse, winning 22 of his 24 starts and putting together an incredible sequence of 21 consecutive victories. 

The David Hayes-trained gelding has broken the Sha Tin 1200m track record at each of his past five appearances, most recently stopping the clock at a remarkable 1:06.11 while carrying 61.2kg and defeating his rivals by almost eight lengths. 

He returns to Randwick after defeating Tempted and Jimmysstar in last year's Everest, although there is a strong argument that he wasn't at his absolute best on that occasion.

The six-year-old has reportedly enjoyed a much smoother preparation this time around, with connections suggesting he has travelled and settled into his Australian surroundings considerably better than last year. However, there are a couple of potential obstacles. Ka Ying Rising has drawn barrier 11, while significant rainfall throughout the week has left Randwick in the heavy range. Although he has won on soft ground, he remains untested on a genuine heavy surface, presenting the one significant unknown surrounding the short-priced favourite.

Tempted ($5) is the obvious danger and has returned in outstanding form for Ciaron Maher. The four-year-old mare finished runner-up in last year's Everest and has since developed into one of Australia's most exciting sprinters. She has won five consecutive races, including two impressive performances this preparation, culminating in a dominant three-length victory in the Premiere Stakes (1200m) at Randwick. 

Her acceleration was exceptional on that occasion, and she appears to have returned a stronger and more mature mare. Barrier one presents a tactical challenge, but she is clearly one of the leading contenders.

Jimmysstar ($15) is another genuine threat following his brilliant victory in the Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield. The Ciaron Maher-trained gelding produced an explosive finishing burst to claim the Group 1, with the addition of blinkers appearing to make a significant difference. He finished third in last year's Everest after racing wide and looks capable of another competitive performance, particularly if the surface remains rain-affected.

Chris Waller's outstanding mare Joliestar ($16) also commands respect. The five-time Group 1 winner claimed the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) at Randwick earlier this year before travelling to Royal Ascot, where she finished a narrow third in one of Europe's premier sprints. Her first-up second in The Shorts (1100m) was encouraging, and she should appreciate returning to 1200m. James McDonald takes the ride from barrier five, giving her every opportunity to feature prominently.

Several outsiders add further intrigue. Former Everest winner Giga Kick ($35) is attempting to rediscover his best form, while Angel Capital ($71) arrives following an impressive Group 1 victory over 1400m at Caulfield. Headwall ($35) has excellent wet-track credentials and could prove competitive at big odds, while lightly raced three-year-old filly Blue Door ($23) brings an interesting combination of early speed, a favourable weight and untapped potential.

History suggests the three-year-olds should not be underestimated. Yes Yes Yes claimed the race in 2019 before Giga Kick repeated the achievement in 2022, although no three-year-old filly has yet managed to win The Everest. Blue Door will attempt to rewrite that statistic, carrying just 51kg under the weight-for-age conditions.

The central question remains whether anyone can seriously challenge Ka Ying Rising. On his Hong Kong form, he looks almost unbeatable, but a wet Randwick surface, an outside barrier and several talented rivals at the top of their game ensure there is still plenty of intrigue surrounding the $20 million sprint.

The Everest is Race 7 on the Randwick card and is one of two Group One races on the day with the King Charles III Stakes coming up as Race 9. 

The speed map suggests a genuinely competitive tempo, with several runners capable of pushing forward and ensuring the race is run at a solid gallop. Ka Ying Rising has the early speed to overcome barrier 11 and is expected to take up a prominent position, potentially leading or settling outside the leader.

Blue Door, Savvy Hallie and Caballus are all capable of racing forward, while Spicy Martini and Marhoona should settle in the on-speed division. With so much early speed drawn across the track, the opening 400m could prove particularly important as riders establish their positions.

Tempted is expected to settle around midfield from barrier one, potentially finding herself three pairs back along the rail. While this should allow her to conserve energy, Chad Schofield will need to ensure she has clear running when the pressure increases approaching the home turn. Joliestar looks well placed to settle around midfield from barrier five, while Jimmysstar is likely to be ridden patiently before producing his customary finishing burst.

Headwall, Angel Capital and Giga Kick are expected to settle in the second half of the field, with the latter two potentially finding themselves towards the rear. The expected tempo should provide opportunities for horses finishing strongly, particularly if the rain-affected conditions make the 1200m a genuine test of stamina.

The most interesting tactical battle could unfold between Ka Ying Rising and the other forward runners. If the Hong Kong champion is forced to work early from his wide draw, it may provide the opportunity for the likes of Tempted, Joliestar and Jimmysstar to close the gap late.

Tempted looks the best option to challenge the short-priced favourite in The Everest. The Ciaron Maher-trained mare has never finished worse than second in six attempts over the Randwick 1200m and boasts an outstanding record on rain-affected ground, although she remains untested on heavy going. She receives 2kg from Ka Ying Rising under the weight-for-age conditions, while her ability to sustain a powerful finishing burst should be particularly valuable if the race develops into a genuine test of stamina. The inside barrier presents a challenge, with Chad Schofield potentially needing to navigate traffic, but the expected strong tempo should help open up opportunities in the straight. At around $5, she appeals as an attractive alternative to the favourite, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding his ability to reproduce his best Hong Kong form on a genuinely testing surface.

Blue Door appeals as an interesting value selection to finish in the placings at attractive odds. The Bjorn Baker-trained filly has made an excellent start to her career, winning two of her four appearances and finishing runner-up in the other two. She produced a particularly impressive performance in the Heritage Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill last start, leading throughout before kicking clear to score by more than two lengths in slick time. The daughter of Stay Inside faces a substantial rise in class and is stepping up to the 1200m for the first time, but she possesses excellent tactical speed and receives a significant weight advantage, carrying just 51kg compared with the 58.5kg allocated to the older male sprinters. Jamie Melham takes the ride from barrier nine, and while the presence of several established Group 1 performers makes winning a difficult assignment, her light weight, natural speed and untapped potential give her some hope of sticking on for a minor placing. At around $3.60 for the place, she represents an appealing value option.