Thousand Guineas Racing Tips – Over The Bridge has the upside to claim Group 1 for the fillies

The race has attracted a competitive field of 13, headed by the promising Regal Ambition, unbeaten Over The Bridge and impressive last-start winner Saintly Dancer.

Regal Ambition ($4.60) heads the market following an outstanding victory in the Jim Moloney Stakes (1440m) at Caulfield. The Lindsay Park-trained filly settled towards the rear before circling the field approaching the home turn and producing a sustained finishing burst to defeat Pretty Baby. 

It was an impressive performance at just her third career start, following a maiden victory at Sandown, and the rise to 1600m looks ideal. Michael Dee retains the ride, although barrier 11 presents a challenge, particularly if the track continues to favour runners settling close to the speed.

Saintly Dancer ($3.90) has attracted plenty of support following her dominant six-length victory in the Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington. The Ciaron Maher-trained filly controlled proceedings from the front before racing clear of her opposition, demonstrating her ability to run a strong mile. The major question is whether she can reproduce that performance on a firmer surface after thriving in extremely wet conditions last start. Blake Shinn takes the ride from barrier four, and she looks certain to give her rivals something to catch.

Stablemate Over The Bridge ($5) brings an unbeaten record into the race after winning her first two starts, including the Scarborough Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield. She was forced to race wide and close to the speed last time but still proved too strong, suggesting she possesses considerable ability. However, jumping from barrier 13 and stepping straight to 1600m at just her third start represents a significant challenge.

Pretty Baby ($10) has been a model of consistency, winning four of her five starts before finishing runner-up to Regal Ambition last time. She carried a penalty on that occasion and has already demonstrated her class with victory in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes (1200m). The Gordon Richards and Damien Moyle-trained filly has shown a liking for rain-affected ground, but her established form and favourable barrier five make her a genuine contender.

De Armas ($8) brings valuable Group 1 experience after an excellent performance in the Flight Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, while Icelady ($11) has form around Saintly Dancer that deserves respect. Platinum Pearl ($19) is another lightly raced filly with considerable upside, having encountered traffic problems at a crucial stage last start.

The Thousand Guineas has produced some outstanding winners throughout its history, including Atlantic Jewel, Alinghi, Miss Finland, Guelph and Joliestar. Last year's edition was taken out by Ole Dancer, and Saturday's winner will join an impressive honour roll.

There is plenty of depth to this year's contest, but Regal Ambition looks a particularly exciting prospect. Her latest victory suggested she has the talent to measure up at Group 1 level, and the additional distance should bring out further improvement.

The Thousand Guineas is Race 7 of 10 on Caulfield Cup day and is scheduled for 3:45pm AEDT. 

Saintly Dancer looks the likely leader after controlling proceedings throughout her dominant Edward Manifold victory. Blake Shinn should be able to take advantage of barrier four and establish a prominent position without having to spend too much energy early.

Over The Bridge has the tactical speed to race close to the lead, although Mark Zahra faces a difficult assignment from the outside barrier. She may be forced to work forward or risk being caught wide, while Pretty Baby should enjoy an economical run from barrier five.

Regal Ambition is likely to settle in the second half of the field after drawing barrier 11, with Michael Dee needing to ensure she doesn't concede too much ground. Platinum Pearl and De Armas are among those capable of finishing strongly if the early tempo is genuine.

The rail moves to the 3m position, and recent Caulfield meetings have generally favoured runners settling close to the speed around the circuit. That could give Saintly Dancer a significant tactical advantage, although any early pressure from Over The Bridge may create opportunities for Regal Ambition and the other strong finishers.

Over The Bridge can maintain her unbeaten record and claim a maiden Group 1 victory in the Thousand Guineas. The Ciaron Maher-trained filly has made an outstanding start to her career, winning both appearances, including an impressive victory in the Scarborough Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield last start. She was forced to race wide and close to the speed throughout that contest but still proved too strong, demonstrating considerable ability and determination. Her form also ties in well with Pretty Baby through Ghana's Akan, providing a useful reference against some of the leading contenders. The step up to 1600m at just her third career start is a significant challenge, while barrier 13 is far from ideal, but she has already shown the tactical speed and versatility to overcome difficult circumstances. Mark Zahra takes the ride, and if she can find a suitable position without doing too much work early, she looks capable of taking another major step forward and remaining undefeated.

One to consider at a massive price is Katoto. The Chris Waller-trained filly was among the beaten brigade behind Regal Ambition in the Jim Moloney Stakes (1440m), where she raced keenly and appeared unsuited by the slow tempo. Despite the race shape working against her, she closed off reasonably well and wasn't beaten all that far on a day that favoured leaders and on-speed runners with the rail out 13m. It's also worth noting that at the third start of her debut campaign, the daughter of Wootton Bassett improved more than 10 lengths on benchmark figures when stepping from a Kembla Grange maiden victory to a third placing in Listed company at Doomben. If the tempo is stronger than the speed map suggests, she is capable of producing a similar spike in performance and sneaking into the placings at enormous odds.