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Sydney Cup Tips - Who will win the Randwick Group 1?
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to Sydney Cup
- Who will take out the Rosehill Group 1?
- Athabascan is tipped as the top contender, with Ashrun, Circle Of Fire, and Selino also favoured
Expired
Who will take out the Sydney Cup? (Getty)
The pinnacle of staying races during the Sydney autumn carnival has always been the Group 1 Sydney Cup and while the race doesn’t hold as much prestige as it once did, it still remains a feature race.
Run over 3200m at Randwick under handicap conditions the race was first run in 1862, and has been won by some of our best staying horses including Carbine (1889,90), Kingston Town (1980) and Makybe Diva (2005)
Our thoughts and betting plays below.
1. Military Mission (17)
Won twice at Group 2 level during the spring, either side of a disappointing effort in the Melbourne Cup which is his only race start at 3200m.
All three runs during this campaign have been excellent and he’s been beaten just over two lengths in his last couple, both at Group 1 level.
He’s being asked to carry the top weight but I wouldn’t be jumping off him just yet despite the awkward barrier because his class will carry him a long way.
2. Mahrajaan (16)
Hadn’t looked likely in two starts to start this campaign when beaten by a combined 34+ lengths but bounced back to win the Group 2 Auckland Cup last time out at $25!
That was the second win from as many starts over 3200m we know the distance will not be an issue.
Will need to rise again and overcome a difficult barrier.
3. Ashrun (12)
Was a part of the bunch finish in the Geelong Cup last year and then ran a great race in the Melbourne Cup when beaten only 4.8 lengths.
Scored by 1.8 lengths in the Pakenham Cup when second up this campaign and then managed to place in the Tancred Stakes at Rosehill leading into this.
Drops down in weight and will be ready to peak at this stage of his prep.
4. Loft (7)
Has been really disappointing in all four runs this time in and has never looked a place chance.
He’s a horse that shows his best out at 3200m but he’s simply not going well this campaign.
5. Stockman (8)
Had conditions to suit last weekend on a heavy track and out to 2600m but finished 3.7 lengths off the winner Circle Of Fire.
He has looked a little flat during this campaign and would need to improve dramatically to be any chance.
6. Selino (9)
Won the race a couple of years back and we know he is a horse that doesn’t produce a lot until getting out to this sort of distance.
His win in the Brisbane Cup was his third over 3200m from six attempts and while I don’t think he’s a winning chance, he can run cheeky race at big odds.
7. Kalapour (6)
Finished second behind Lindermann two back and was then thrown into the deep end in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill where he shocked everyone by winning at a massive price.
Earned a shot at the Melbourne Cup by winning the Archer over 2500m but I’m unsure this is his preferred distance.
His class will take him a long way and he’s clearly racing well.
8. Serpentine (8)
Brings in an unbeaten record so far this prep with two wins from two starts at 2000m.
He took out a Listed race at Randwick first up before beating Zeyrek at Group 3 level two weeks ago.
The issue is that he’s had four goes at 3200m+ and has barely beaten a horse home in every one of them.
Would need to take him with a heap of trust involved.
9. Amade (5)
Hasn’t spelled since returning for a spring campaign and his sole win came in the Group 3 Geelong Cup back in October.
The 10-year-old gelding is clearly loving his racing still and he put together back to back placings in black type races before he was beaten 3.2 lengths in the Adelaide Cup.
A month between runs will have him fresh and three of his 10 career wins have been at 3200m.
10. Athabascan (11)
Has been working through his gears well this campaign and was only beaten 1.7 lengths behind Kalapour in the Tancred last time out at weight-for-age.
He drops 7kg into this race and although we haven’t seen him at 3200m he has twice won over 2400m.
Loved the way he attacked the line in the Tancred and that is always a good form reference going into this race.
11. Manzoice (1)
Has been ticking away nicely this campaign with this always his grand final.
Ran into one better in the shape of Post Impressionist at Rosehill last start and was scratched off the heavy track last weekend in favour of this.
Whether that means he is a run short or not, the fact he has just two wins from 16 career starts worries me but he does get in with a very light weight.
12. Circle Of Fire (15)
Was transferred from Sir Michael Stout to the care of Ciaron Maher in January and broke through for his Australian debut win at just his third start here last weekend.
He couldn’t have been much more impressive when winning that Group 2 event over 2600m and he drops a further 1.5kg on that effort.
He’s shown a sharp turn of foot since arriving and with the light weight, he will be storming home late in the piece.
13. Glentaneous (2)
A progressive type who worked his way through the grades well during his last campaign, winning his last three before a seven week freshen up.
He’s yet to win from three attempts since, but h has not been far away and with the light weight, and Jamie Kah steering from barrier two, he’s right in this.
14. Major Beel (3)
He won the Group 1 Australian Derby over 2400m this time last year but despite that I’ve never thought this gelding was a genuine staying type.
The son of Savabeel has never replicated a rating like he did on heavy track last year in the Derby and although he gets in with no weight, I can’t see him figuring in the finish.
15. Mostly Cloudy (14)
Came to the Bussuttin and Young stable mid last year for a tilt at the feature staying races during the spring and worked through the grades well eventually taking out an open race over 2500m at Flemington.
He is a winner at this distance in the northern hemisphere but he’s not going well enough to win a race of this quality in my opinion.
16. Torrens (13)
Seems to have been in training forever so fitness won’t be an issue!
Hasn’t shown enough to suggest he’d be competitive in a Sydney Cup.
17. So Dazzling (10)
Just the one win from 17 career race starts and no placing from three attempts this time in.
Worked through the line well behind Circle Of Fire last weekend but meets that horse at the same weight scale.
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: No. 10 Athabascan
2nd: No. 3 Ashrun
3rd: No. 12 Circle Of Fire
4th: No. 6 Selino
1st: No. 10 Athabascan
2nd: No. 3 Ashrun
3rd: No. 12 Circle Of Fire
4th: No. 6 Selino
Athabascan
Winner
@15/2 - 2 Units
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