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Australian Derby Tips - Predictions and analysis for the Randwick Group 1
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to the Australian Derby
- Who will take out the Randwick Group 1?
- Is Riff Rocket the one to beat?
Expired
Riff Rocket (Getty)
The pinnacle of staying races for three-year-old’s during the Sydney autumn carnival is the Australian Derby, run over 2400m under set weight conditions.
One of our oldest races, first run in 1861, some of the country’s best staying horses have won the race including Phar Lap (1929), Tulloch (1957) and Kingston Town (1980).
We’ve run our keen eye over the entire field and offer our thoughts and betting plays below.
1. Riff Rocket (10)
His racing resume is pretty incredible if you sit back and take a quick look.
Already a two-time Group 1 winner and has missed a place only once in 10 career starts which is impressive for a horse bred to stay over distance.
I feel the punters are underrating the horse because he was a beaten favourite in the Australian Guineas but he proved his class by winning the Rosehill Guineas in dominant fashion last time out.
Won twice on soft so the rain shouldn’t worry him.
2. Tom Kitten (3)
Always profiled as the leading Derby contender and his lead in runs toward the Rosehill Guineas suggested he was right on path.
His run at Rosehill was a little disappointing if we are being honest but he was still only beaten 1.6 lengths.
It’s impossible to ignore that Spring Champion win he produced last campaign but he that fact he avoided the better staying three-year-old’s in the spring may have made us overrated his ability a little.
3. Ceolwolf (5)
This Joe Pride trained colt has continued to improve with each run this prep and he heads into the Derby on the back of a second in the Rosehill Guineas where he was beaten less than a length.
The son of Tavistock has had a classic Derby campaign and was always going to be a better horse getting out to this sort of distance.
My main concern si that he seems to be better on top of the ground but we’ll never know until we see them on a heavy deck.
4. Cap Farrat (7)
Another horse that has been building nicely up in distance with an eye on this grand final.
His breeding doesn’t scream out that he will be a genuine stayer but there is no doubting he has a heap of ability.
Was beaten just over a length behind Riff Rocket two weeks ago and while I think he’ll struggle to turn the tables, he’s a place chance.
5. Ganbare (1)
Has mixed it with the best throughout this campaign and has been beaten less than two lengths at Group 1 level in his past couple.
The Waterhouse and Bott trained colt is out of Maurice and a Redoute’s Choice dam so the distance shouldn’t be an issue and we are yet to see him on a ran affected track.
6. Immediacy (13)
Couldn’t have been much more impressive when winning at Group 2 level two back by three lengths at Caulfield.
Previous to that he had won on a soft track at Sandown and while he was soundly beaten in the Rosehill Guineas, he was beaten just 1.4 lengths.
Bred to stay and has a heap of upside.
7. Wymark (14)
Unlike the horses above, Wymark brings in a different form line to the Australian Derby.
He’s proven a progressive type earning his chance at a Group 1 through four wins on the trot, the latest of which came at Group 2 level.
Three of his wins this prep have been on a soft track and fitness will not be a concern as this is his eighth start this campaign!
8. Noisy Boy (8)
Comes into this event off the back of a peak rating when finishing second to Wymark at Group 2 level.
He’ll need to rise again to have any chance in this.
9. Glad You Think So
He’s actually a pretty handy young horse but I’m not sure he’s up to this level of racing at this stage of his career.
10. Adagio (11)
Absolutely dominated his rivals at Canberra last time out over 2000m in a class 1.
He stormed clear of his rivals once given a couple of whips and it was an impressive win.
Big rise in class.
11. Zenmaster (9)
Finished 20 lengths behind Wymark at Newcastle two starts back which can give you a guide to his chances.
Will run the distance which is half the battle in these races.
12. Hooligan Tommy (12)
Yet to break his maiden from seven trips to the races but has been placed in all three so far this campaign.
Son of Ocean Park out of an O’Reilly mare so he will appreciate the step up in distance now.
13. Saxon Brave (6)
Broke his maiden duck at Grafton last time out over 1700m but it would quite a story to take this big a leap in grade.
14. Zardozi (2)
The only filly in the race this year as Godolphin changed plans after her third to Orchestral last Saturday.
James Cummings may have seen the weather radar because she is about the only horse in this race who has seen a heavy track let alone won getting through it.
In fact, five of her six career wins have been on either soft or heavy going.
She has won over 2500m of course in the VRC Oaks and ticks a lot of boxes.
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: No. 1 Riff Rocket
2nd: No. 3 Ceolwolf
3rd: No. 14 Zardozi
4th: No. 5 Ganbare
1st: No. 1 Riff Rocket
2nd: No. 3 Ceolwolf
3rd: No. 14 Zardozi
4th: No. 5 Ganbare
Riff Rocket
Winner
@2/1 - 3 Units
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