Australian Cup Tips - Complete guide to Flemington Group 1
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to the Australian Cup
- Who will take out the Flemington Group 1?
- Will Mr Brightside justify favouritism?
The time-honoured Australian Cup is run over 2000m at Flemington racecourse held under weight-for-age conditions for three-year-old’s and above.
First run in 1863, the Group 1 race has been won by some legends of the Australian turf including Dulcify (1979), Better Loosen Up (1991) and Makybe Diva (2005).
A small field has been assembled for the 2024 edition but we have run through every horse and offer our thoughts below and best odds from Picklebet.
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1. Mr Brightside (1)
He has been marvel for the Hayes team for a number of years but he is right now in career best form having finished in the top two in 12 straight dating back to February last year.
It’s not only a testament to the horse who continues to perform every time he goes to the races, but to the stable for placing so well.
He seems to have one 2000m race in him per prep as we saw when he was narrowly defeated in the Cox Plate during the spring and he will have an advantage over his arch nemesis Pride Of Jenni at this distance.
2. Cascadian (8)
The nine-year-old chestnut gelding is searching for back to back wins in the Australian Cup after showing his incredible turn of foot to win the race last year.
All three of his runs this campaign have been full of merit and he finished just three lengths off the winner Mr Brightside at Caulfield last time out.
I’m of the opinion that you need to be a Flemington horse to win this race and this guy fits that profile perfectly.
This is a better field than last year and while he has the class to win, a place is more likely.
3. Vow And Declare (9)
The Australian Cup winners list is littered with staying horses who are having a light autumn and are targeted for this race specifically.
Think Leilani, Makybe Diva, Zipping, Shocking, Fiorente.
The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner fits this profile well and he went within a whisker of beating Group 1 winner Campionessa first up in the Peter Young despite Billy Egan fumbling with the whip at a crucial stage.
He’s placed five times from nine second up career runs and has always performed at his best at headquarters.
4. Dom To Shoot (6)
The West Australian was excellent during the Perth Summer carnival but has failed to impress at both starts on the east coast.
He’s capable of being competitive but not at this level for mine.
5. Young Werther (3)
Another at a big price that profiles as the perfect Australian Cup horse.
He has been placed in seven of 12 starts here at Flemington including his last start where he won by 2.5 lengths over 1800m.
The son of Tavistock is yet to win a Group 1 race but he has been placed five times from eight starts at the highest level including a placing behind Atishu in the Mackinnon at this track and distance during the spring.
Drawn well and represents great value at his current price.
6. Esti Fenny (4)
Was beaten by 7.3 lengths in a benchmark 88 handicap in February and three lengths behind Young Werther last time out.
Would need to improve dramatically to be any chance.
7. Pride Of Jenni (7)
She has won three of her last four starts, all at Group 1 level, and the one blemish was a second by the barest of margins behind Mr Brightside.
Has proven she is the best miler in the country over the last six months or so but the 2000m is the issue.
If she is allowed to get a slow tempo out in front, we know how tough she is late, but I’m don’t expect that to be the case.
8. Atishu (5)
Did I mention it’s important to be a Flemington horse to win the Australian Cup?
This mare’s last two wins have been at headquarters and include a dominant win in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes during the spring.
Her first up win at Group 2 level was superb and she has been targeted for this race.
9. Legarto (2)
Three-time Group 1 winner Legarto comes over from New Zealand having finished in the top two in all four runs this campaign.
She was beaten as the long odds on favourite at Ellerslie last start but she wasn’t beaten far and they gapped the third horse.
She’s had one go here at Flemington and that was her only Group 1 win in Australia.
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: No. 1 Mr Brightside
2nd: No. 3 Vow And Declare
3rd: No. 8 Atishu
4th: No. 5 Young Werther
2nd: No. 3 Vow And Declare
3rd: No. 8 Atishu
4th: No. 5 Young Werther
Mr Brightside
Win
@6/4 - 5 Units
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