The Metropolitan Tips - Birdman to claim the Metropolitan at Randwick

The race has a rich history of producing Caulfield Cup and even Melbourne Cup contenders, and this year’s edition brings together a mix of seasoned internationals, emerging imports, and proven locals. 

Chris Waller, already a six-time winner of the race, unleashes a powerful team led by emerging star Soul Of Spain, last-start Newcastle Cup winner and now outright favourite at $5. With just 50.5kg on his back, he profiles as the progressive stayer ready to make the leap to Group 1 company.

Waller’s other key hope is Birdman ($6.50), who scored his first Australian win last start in the Kingston Town Stakes and drops sharply to 51.5kg. Despite a tricky barrier 17, stable confidence remains high that his strong staying profile and Cup aspirations will see him competitive. 

Stablemates Etna Rosso ($11) and Travolta ($12) have drawn ideally in barriers two and one respectively and will get economical runs, with Etna Rosso in particular expected to appreciate stepping up in trip after charging late last start. Add in Royal Supremacy ($10) for Ciaron Maher, runner-up in the Newcastle Cup, and the depth of this year’s race is clear.

The tempo is likely to be influenced by Kris Lees’ Changingoftheguard ($8.50), who ended a long drought with a bold front-running performance in the Tattersalls Club Cup. With his natural staying ability and capacity to roll along, he can make the Metrop a genuine test, potentially setting things up for the stronger closers. 

At the top of the weights sits Vauban ($9.50), Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott’s accomplished stayer who brings proven European class but must lump 58.5kg under handicap conditions. Arapaho ($11) is another with genuine Group 1 form, though he too concedes weight to many lightly weighted improvers.

Tactically, this Metropolitan could come down to how the race is run: if Changingoftheguard ensures a strong clip, it will bring stayers like Birdman and Etna Rosso right into play late, while if the pressure is only moderate, the likes of Soul Of Spain and Travolta with their low weights and tactical versatility will be hardest to hold out.

Birdman draws awkwardly and will need luck early on but with Changingoftheguard stringing them out a bit he is every chance of finding a spot before the second bend. The imported galloper has now had just under a year to settle into Australia and looks to be delivering on his talent after his last start Kingston Town Stakes win whgen going a very healthy 13 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which is the best last start figure of any runner in this race. He can raise the bar higher, particularly with the drop from the 55kg to the 51.5kg. 

Arapaho carries 58kg and is 3kg worse off at the weights against Birdman with more than four lengths to make up. At the weights, he is a no. But, the nine-year-old can’t be ignored at the 2400m. His last three starts at the distance have resulted in wins in the 2024 Tancred Stakes and Zipping Classic in Melbourne as well as a luckless 4th in the Tancred Stakes this year On both occasions he was fourth up and improved between three and 12 lengths on benchmark figures. He has been performing well on Good tracks in the last couple of years, despite what his overall record suggests. A firmer since the barrier draw, he is well worth thought at the double figures.