Randwick Guineas Racing Tips – Sheza Alibi set to explode towards first Group 1 win

She has been smashed in the betting since the barrier draw and is now a $2.40 favourite, while Autumn Boy has eased out to $3 for the Randwick feature race. 

The latter is one of five to come out of the Hobartville Stakes, which was taken out by Ninja, who enjoyed the run of the race up on speed in a moderately run contest before putting the foot down in the straight to score by more than a length. The performance rated 3.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which was dwarfed by what Sheza Alibi produced in her win in the Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield when going 10.4 lengths faster than standard benchmark.

The Hobartville figure was due to the slow tempo and the likes of Autumn Boy were at a disadvantage. He finished strongly into 3rd in that race, recording the fastest final 400m of the event after settling back early, while Attica was doing his best work through the line with the fastest last 200m when finishing 4th. Rivellino and Green Spaces were the other runners to come through the Hobartville and both will be looking to improve stepping to 1600m.

Dusty Bay, Decorum and Providence complete the field and while both Dusty Bay and Providence arrive as last start winners, they will need to produce a clear career-best to challenge the leading chances.

Dusty Bay (8) possesses the most natural early speed in the race and looks the likely leader, with Sheza Alibi (9) and Decorum (7) capable of settling close to the pace.

Autumn Boy (1) should land just behind the leading division from his inside draw, while Ninja (3) and Rivellino (4) map to settle in the off-pace positions tracking the tempo.

Attica (2) and Providence (6) are likely to settle further back in the midfield to off-midfield region before attempting to build momentum approaching the home turn.

Green Spaces (5) appears likely to concede a start before trying to run on late.

With Dusty Bay likely to control the early stages, the tempo may only be moderate which could make tactical positioning critical approaching the Randwick turn.

Sheza Alibi just has to bring her Melbourne form to Sydney. She has had experience racing in the clockwise direction, albeit in off grid venues as a younger horse in Queensland but it is hard to ignore what she has produced at her past three starts when winning by a combined margin of 10 lengths. She overcame trouble in the straight last time to win with ease and gives every indication she can measure up to the topliners in her first go at Group 1 level. 

Attica appeals as the value runner. He was doing his best work late in the Hobartville Stakes over 1400m first-up and the rise to 1600m looks ideal. During his debut preparation he improved sharply when stepping from 1400m to the mile, improving five on benchmark figures when stepping up from a Kembla Grange Class 1 to take out the Listed Dulcify Stakes over this course and distance. With that profile and a strong closing section expected, he looks capable of improving sharply second-up.