Queensland Derby Tips - Rough Habit Plate form to hold up in the Queensland Derby
- 2025 Queensland Derby set at Eagle Farm for Group 1 race.
- Top contenders: Statuario, King Of Thunder, others from Rough Habit Plate.
- Track conditions: Possible showers, could impact race dynamics.
2025 Queensland Derby Speed Preview
- 2025 Queensland Derby Speed Preview
- 2025 Queensland Derby Speed Map
- 2025 Queensland Derby Best Bet
- 2025 Queensland Derby Value Bet
The three-year-old stayers line up for Group 1 glory in the $1 million Queensland Derby (2400m) at Eagle Farm on Saturday.
Heading the market at around the $5 quote in most markets is Statuario, the grey gelding trained by Emma-Lee and David Browne, who arrives off an eye-catching runner-up effort behind Femminile in the South Australian Derby (2500m).
A total of five runners come out of that race, including the winner, Femminile, as well as Lavalier (3rd), Scintillante (4th) and Saint Emilion (7th). The winner went 3.1 lengths faster than standard benchmark
Another key contender is King Of Thunder, who comes off a 3rd placing behind Imperialist in the Rough Habit Plate (2000m) on a Heavy track at Doomben on May 17. That race has always been a solid guide to the Derby and 10 runners had their last start in the Group 3, including Imperialist, Deep Focus (runner-up) and Belle Detelle.
Keep an eye on the weather in the lead up to this. Eagle Farm was rated as a Good track on Thursday but there is a strong chance of showers on the Friday and on raceday.
Belle Detelle is one of four fillies in the race and will be out to become the first since 2010 to win the Queensland Derby, but will have to do it from barrier 21 (likely to come into 17 after the removal of emergencies).
Other strong contenders include Party Crasher, Maison Louis, and Firm Agreement, The Queensland Derby winner can often springboard into future greatness, with past placegetters like Shocking and Vow And Declare going on to Melbourne Cup success.
2025 Queensland Derby Speed Map
There looks to be a lack of a natural leader here. Imperialist led in the Rough Habit Plate but was back in runs prior to that. Party Crasher might kick up from the inside barrier, while Existential Bob and Chase Your Dreams could scoot across from out wide. Rogan and The Muffin Man come out of a strongly run affair at Caulfield in Melbourne but don’t expect too many records to be broken early on. Statuario has options from barrier 5 and John Allen can see what unfolds early on. King Of Thunder draws a tad awkwardly and will look to settle front half.
2025 Queensland Derby Best Bet
This is a really tough race. Leaning towards those that raced in the Rough Habit Plate and were in Sydney prior to that. Figures out of those races are superior than those of the contenders from the South Australian Derby. King Of Thunder is a bit of a grinding type and the draw is a bit of a concern. Willing to forgive Firm Agreement for his 10th placing at Doomben. The Anabel Neasham & Rob Archibald-trained galloper didn't handle the Heavy track and probably wasn't suited by the tempo. He was forced to go early and produced the fastest 800m-400m split before fading. Form prior to that was excellent with three consecutive runner-up performances, including one behind Aeliana in the Australian Derby and as long as we don't get to a bog track, he is more than capable of bouncing back. Nash Rawiler rides and is likely to jump from barrier 4 after the removal of the last two emergencies.
2025 Queensland Derby Value Bet
Value lies with another that comes out of the Rough Habit Plate, Beau Dazzler, and if the second emergency, The Muffin Man, can sneak in, he is one to consider. Beau Dazzler was second up heading into the Rough Habit Plate, grinding into 8th position, beaten five lengths. Unlike others in this race that have been up for a while, the Toowoomba galloper should have improvement to come and was excellent at this stage of his last preparation when spiking nearly 16 lengths on benchmark figures to take out the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes (1800m) at Eagle Farm. The Muffin Man has been racing in Victoria and has gone more than 10 lengths faster than standard benchmark at his past two starts, finishing runner-up in the VOBIS Gold Reef (1600m) at Flemington behind Athanatos before being posted four-wide no cover over the 2000m at Caulfield last time when 3rd. This doesn't look to be a strong Derby and he might have the talent to trouble those higher in the market.
Verdict
Queensland Derby Tips
Firm Agreement
Best Bet
@1300.0 - 1 Unit
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Beau Dazzler
Best Value
@2500.0 - 1 Unit
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with referral code BETSAU
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The Muffin Man
Smokey Alert
@2200.0 - 1 Unit
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with referral code BETSAU
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