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Newmarket Handicap Tips - Runner-by-Runner Guide for the Flemington Group 1

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Last updated: 07 Mar 2024
Joshua Bell 07 Mar 2024
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  • Runner-by-Runner Guide to the Newmarket Handicap
  • Who will take out the Flemington Group 1?
  • Buenos Noches is our value selection
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Buenos Noches (Getty Images)

The time-honoured Newmarket Handicap is run down the famous Flemington straight over 1200m and is an open handicap race worth $1.5 million.

The Group 1 race was first run in 1874 and has been won by some champion sprinting horses including Wakeful (1901), Bernborough (1946) and more recently Black Caviar (2011).

We managed to find the winner of the Australian Guineas at $18 last week and we have run through every horse in the Newmarket and offer our betting suggestions below with best odds from WinnersBet.

1. Imperatriz (58kg)


She proved yet again just how classy she was by winning her ninth Group 1 event first up in the Black Caviar/Lightning Handicap down the Flemington straight.

The daughter of I Am Invincible didn’t have it all her own way when Private Eye sat just on her outside pressuring her the entire way and it was an impressive win to hold off the challenge.

She is being asked to carry the same weight that Black Caviar did when she won this race and she’ll need to be every bit as good to win.

2. Bella Nipotina (55.5kg)


She again proved she is one of the most consistent sprinting mares in the country when finishing fourth in the Black Caviar and was doing her best work late to be beaten under a length.

There’s no doubt she is better out to 1200m and meets Imperatriz 2.5kg better at the weights.

I’d rather be on her to place than the favourite to win considering the price difference.

3. Buenos Noches (55.5kg)


Only a lightly raced four-year-old who has been placed twice at Group 1 level through 12 career starts.

If you want a guide through Imperatriz you only need to look back at his final race of his spring campaign where he has beaten half a length in the VRC Classic and he meets the mare 4.5kgs better at the weights.

And weights are everything in these races.

4. Espiona (54.5kg)


Like Bella Nicotine, she savaged the line first up and is better out to 1200m.

Looks likely to take her police in Sydney however.

5. Ruthless Dame (53.5kg)


Won her first Group 1 in Adelaide last May but has not won a race since.

Was edged out by Espionage in The Invitation in the spring and although she is fast enough to be competitive over this distance, she’s better over further in my opinion.

6. Magic Time (53kg)


Has won five f her eight career race starts including her maiden Group 1 win in the Sir Rupert Clarke at the end of her spring campaign.

Has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and gets in well at the weights.

Has plenty of class and while she’ll likely improve on whatever she produces, she’s a live chance.

7. The Astrologist (52.5kg)


Loves the Flemington straight which is evident by seven placings from 12 attempts at the track and distance.

Was a touch disappointing in the Black Caviar but drops 6kg into this and is a much better chance than the triple figure odds suggest.

8. Benedetta (52kg)


Was narrowly beaten down the Flemington straight during the spring at Group 2 level behind Star Patrol and King Of Sparta as the favourite.

Resumed with a fourth in the Oakleigh Plate but was beaten under two lengths and had excuses.

Look for an improved performance from a classy sprinting mare.

9. Its’ourtime (52kg)


Another horse that thrives down the famous Flemington straight and has been placed seven times from 10 starts at the track and distance.

Finished 1.7 lengths off Star Patrol in the same race Benedetto was in during the spring and has a light weight.

10. Master Fay (52kg)


Was brilliant on debut when winning by 2.5 lengths at Sha Tin and then had 152 weeks in between runs.

The now six-year-old son of Deep Field has returned to the races in New Zealand with back to back wins and earned a shot at the big time in Melbourne.

Racing well and no weight. Watch betting.

11. Rey Magnerio (7)


Has won six times during this very long campaign which earned him a chance at the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate where he was far from disgraced.

He finished just over two lengths from the winner that day and is being asked to carry just 52kg.

Will need luck in running and may just be off the top sprinters.

12. Sghirripa (52kg)


A very progressive type of horse who has won four of six so far this prep including a Group 3 at this track and distance.

Had six weeks in between runs into the Oakleigh Plate where he was beaten just over two lengths off the winner.

He produced the fastest closing split of the entire meeting and drops 3kg on that effort.

13. Skew Wiff (52kg)


The Kiwi visitor is already a Group 1 winner over the ditch when she beat home Legato and Dragon Leap over 1400m.

Her run in the Oakleigh Plate was full of merit and she was always going to be better second up where she has a god record.

She’ll appreciate the step up in distance as well as the 3kg drop in weight.

Much better chance than he price suggests.

14. Cylinder (51.5kg)


Yet to win a Group 1 race but was beaten a short margin behind Militarise in the Golden Rose against her own age.

He’s better suited to the sprinting distances in my opinion and although he was soundly beaten in the Black Caviar Lightning, he settled too far back.

I’d suggest he will go to the front with the light weight and I can see him running a hell of a race.

Verdict

SELECTIONS

1st: No. 3 Buenos Noches
2nd: No. 12 Sghirripa
3rd: No. 2 Bella Nipotina
4th: No. 13 Skew Wiff

Best Bet1: Buenos Noches Winner @4/1 at Winnersbet - 3 Units
Buenos Noches
Winner
@4/1 - 3 Units
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