Horse Racing Tips - Saturday, October 4

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Epsom Handicap Tips - Can Autumn Glow overcome wide barrier in Epsom and maintain unbeaten streak?

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 01 Oct 2025

Adam Cusworth 01 Oct 2025

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Autumn Glow is the unbeaten favourite, despite an outside draw.
Ceolwulf, Pericles, Pier, and Willydoit are key contenders offering value.
Expected strong early pace—tactical speed and weights will play crucial roles.

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Autumn Glow steps out as favourite in the Epsom Handicap (Getty Images)

2025 Epsom Handicap Preview

2025 Epsom Handicap Preview
2025 Epsom Handicap Speed Map
2025 Epsom Handicap Best Bet
2025 Epsom Handicap Value Bet

The Epsom Handicap (1600m) takes centre stage at Randwick on Saturday, and while the famous Randwick mile has been won by legends of the turf, all eyes this year are on Autumn Glow.

The unbeaten Chris Waller-trained mare has opened a dominant favourite despite drawing the outside barrier in a field of 14. Kerrin McEvoy retains the ride at 54.5kg, with the stable opting to keep James McDonald aboard Via Sistina in Melbourne.

Autumn Glow faces a stern test but is bidding to become just the fourth mare in the past 50 years to win the race, following the path of Secret Admirer, Winx and Probabeel.

Her main rivals include topweight Ceolwulf, last year’s Epsom winner who carries 58kg, and Tramway Stakes victor Pericles with 57kg. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott will pin their hopes on lightweight Fully Lit, aiming to extend Waterhouse’s remarkable Epsom record, while Queensland star Yellow Brick and Kiwi raider Pier add further depth. There is also plenty of interest in lightly weighted gallopers such as El Castello and Willydoit, who map to get favourable runs from soft draws.

There are many different formlines converging. Autumn Glow comes in with the best last start benchmark figures of any runner, having gone 11.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark when claiming the Theo Marks Stakes (1200m) by two lengths. Pier (3rd) and El Castello (4th) come out of that lead up.

Two runners come out of the Tramway with Willydoit (8th) joining Pericles. The Kiwi galloper was first up that day and closed off with the fastest last 200m.

Pericles boasts the best figure that any horse has set in the past two years when runner-up behind Celestial Legend in the 2024 Doncaster Mile, going 15.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark. The Godolphin galloper went 8.1 lengths faster in his most recent win.

Ceolwulf is the only to have taken part in the 7 Stakes (1600m) at his most recent start, going 9.3 lengths faster than standard.

The Epsom is Race 8 of 10 at Randwick on Saturday October 4 and will be run at 4:10PM AEST.

2025 Epsom Handicap Speed Map

Fully Lit and Magnatear are likely to spear across from their respective barriers and find a forward position, while Pericles can tuck in just behind from barrier 5. El Castello and Yellow Brick won’t be far away. Autumn Glow has good gatespeed and has settled forward of midfield in all of her runs. I expect her to find a spot in the front half and McEvoy can slot in. Pier, Ceolwulf and Swiftfalcon are amongst the backmarkers.

2025 Epsom Handicap Best Bet

Autumn Glow is the clear standout and has the tactical speed and class to overcome the barrier, settling where Kerrin McEvoy needs her. The daughter of the Autumn Sun comes in with some excellent figures in her two runs this time in and looks exceptionally well placed under handicap conditions with the 54.5kg, compared to proven Group 1 performers like Ceolwulf and Pericles. Expect her to position within striking distance and the way she has been finishing off her races with the fastest last 200m at her past three, suggests that the mile will be perfect for her third up with the Waller polish.

2025 Epsom Handicap Value Bet

If you are not keen on the favourite there is value left right and centre. Willydoit & Pier are a couple of Kiwis that are right in this. Pier was four lenghts off Autumn Glow when resuming in the Theo Marks but has the benefit of the run under his belt and is proven at the trip, having won three of four, including one at Group 1 level in his homeland as well as another inn Queensland by three lengths last winter at Listed level. The lightly raced six-year-old meets Autumn Glow 3kg better at the weights and should be strong late in the piece.

Willydoit drew very wide in the Tramway and was forced back then raced keenly in the middle stages before striking traffic in the straight. He closed off with the fastest last 200m and will relish the step up to the mile. The New Zealand Group 1 winner is two from two at the distance and will settle alot closer this time around from the better draw and will enjoy a race that should be run to suit. He drops 5kg and meets Pericles 5kg better.

Verdict

Epsom Handicap

Epsom Handicap Tips

Autumn Glow

Epsom Handicap

@5/4 - 1 Unit

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Epsom Handicap

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Pier (Value)

Epsom Handicap

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