Doomben 10000 Racing Tips - Jimmysstar the one to beat at soggy Doomben

A quality line-up of sprint stars heads north, while the battle between James McDonald aboard Napoleonic and Hong Kong superstar Zac Purton on Grafterburners adds another layer of intrigue to Queensland’s first elite-level race of the winter.

The weather could play a crucial role. Doomben was rated a Heavy 8 on Friday morning and history suggests wet conditions can completely change the complexion of this race. On dry tracks, inside barriers have dominated the Doomben 10000 over the past two decades, with winners rarely drawing wider than gate seven. But when the rain arrives, the pattern flips dramatically, with runners drawn wider and away from the inside often holding a major advantage.

Jimmystar brings the strongest form into the race and deserves favouritism. The six-year-old comes through the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) and All Aged Stakes (1400m), where he hit the line strongly against the nation’s best sprinters. The slight query is the drop back to 1200m, with his recent runs suggesting he may now be looking for further, but a strong tempo and rain-affected track could bring him perfectly into the contest late.

Grafterburners profiles as one of the key dangers. The talented colt has an excellent record at 1200m and maps to land in an ideal stalking position just behind the speed. Zac Purton taking the ride only adds confidence and horses with his racing pattern traditionally perform well around Doomben. The Arrowfield Sprint form ties in strongly and he should get every chance from the draw.

Napoleonic has emerged as one of the more fascinating runners in the race. The three-year-old colt brings outstanding Sydney autumn form through races won by Joliestar, Beiwacht and Autumn Boy, while his recent trials have been ultra-impressive. He maps to settle midfield with cover and James McDonald’s booking catches the eye. At his best, he looks capable of measuring up at weight-for-age level and is still a horse on the rise.

Beadman also comes right into calculations after returning to form with a dominant win last start. He handles all track conditions, maps well from the inside draw and should get the run of the race behind what looks a genuinely strong speed.

Skybird remains the X-factor runner. Her effort two starts ago behind Joliestar reads well for this, but her Adelaide run was disappointing and the wide gate makes the task harder again. If she can slot in and find cover, she has the class to figure at odds.

The Doomben 10000 is Race 8 on the programme at Doomben and is set to be run at 4.02pm. 

The speed looks genuine from the outset with Private Harry, Uncommon James and Another Wil all expected to roll forward and apply pressure early. Grafterburners should enjoy a soft run just behind that leading division from barrier seven, while Spicy Martini and Beadman also map to land prominently without having to do too much work.

Jimmystar is likely to drift back towards midfield or worse from the awkward draw and will rely on tempo and luck around the bend before launching late. Napoleonic maps to settle midfield with cover and should get every opportunity to build through his gears approaching the home turn.

Rothfire and Skybird both face tricky draws but could benefit if the track pattern favours runners wider off the fence later in the day. Reserve Bank and Payline may settle further back and look for gaps late, while Zarastro is likely to drift towards the rear and attempt to run on.

The key tactical element appears to be how hard the leaders go early. If the pressure is strong throughout, it sets the race up for Jimmystar and Napoleonic charging late. If the tempo steadies midrace, Grafterburners and Beadman may prove difficult to run down around Doomben’s tight layout.

He is the one to beat coming out of the better races with a 5th in the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) and a one-length 3rd in the All Aged Stakes (1400m) on a day that played into the hands of the leaders. The six-year-old comes in with the best last-start benchmark figures of any runner, having gone 11 lengths faster than standard last time, while his best performances and figures came at this stage of his last preparation when claiming the Russell Balding Stakes (1300m) at Randwick and the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield. No huge concerns over the 1200m and he will get at least a genuine tempo in this. Expect Jimmy to be very hard to hold out at the business end.

The old-timer Rothfire wasn’t up to the task when resuming in the $1 million The Archer at Rockhampton earlier this month, fading to finish 10th behind Yellow Brick after being caught wide early before being checked out of the race at the 200m. With the Doomben track a strong chance to be in the Heavy range come start time, the eight-year-old comes right into calculations and was runner-up in this race last year when second up off a similar first-up run. The Rob Heathcote-trained galloper draws wide, which may not be a disadvantage late in the day if runners are shifting away from the fence, and he shapes as a genuine knockout chance at big odds.