Flemington Racing Tips for May 16 – Changingoftheguard to race into the Melbourne Cup

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which also features in our coverage of racing from around Australia on Saturday with the feature coming up at Doomben for the Doomben 10000.

Classic Gem shapes as a major player in Race 2 at Flemington, which sees the three-year-olds in action over the 2000m. The Dom Sutton filly comes back down from Sydney after some very respectable performances at The Championships, including a last start 4th in the Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m). She drops back in grade and in distance but has had just the three starts this time in and her best figures came deep in her previous preparation when 4th in the Ethereal Stakes (2000m) and 4th in the VRC Oaks (2500m). The daughter of Maurice is still a Maiden but this is her easiest race in some time and she should tuck into a nice spot from the perfect draw. 

Keen on Lovelycut in Race 4. The four-year-old comes into this third up and was unlucky when resuming at Caulfield in a strong form race early last month behind Rue De Royale before just failing to reel in Capper Thirtynine over the 1400m here on ANZAC Day. The Reece Goodwin mare was a third up winner at her last preparation and will settle just worse than midfield with the 1.5kg claimer, Luke Cartwright to ride. He strikes at just under 20% for the stable, providing a 37% profit on investment. 

Changingoftheguard can go all the way to the Melbourne Cup with a win in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m). The winner of this gets the golden ticket to the first Tuesday in November and the seven-year-old is likely to get his favoured surface of Good. The former Royal Ascot winner has had a mixed time of it since coming to Australia but showed what he is capable of with a tough win in the recernt Sydney Cup (3200m) when leading all the way. He should be suited by the set weights conditions of the race and will be ridden by Declan Bates, who is no slouch when it comes to rating front-runners. 

Losesomewinmore shapes as an each-way contender in Race 8 of the day at Flemington. The Adelaide galloper tends to save his best for Flemington with four wins from six starts down the straight and comes off a complete forget run when 18th in the John Hawkes Stakes (1100m) at Morphettville when resuming. He drew the carpark and was well back at the post but was only beaten five lengths and he did pull up with an issue. Back at Flemington and second up, he should enjoy the favours from the grandstand side and he just needs to see out the 1200m to be a big factor at the business end.