Cox Plate Racing Tips – Sir Delius ready to peak in historic Flemington edition

A field of 12 will tackle the Group 1 feature, with established weight-for-age performers Sir Delius, Aeliana, Cosmic Crusader and Light Infantry Man taking on two exciting three-year-olds in Warwoven and Blind Raise. 

The race has been dominated by superstars in recent years, with Anamoe, Romantic Warrior and Via Sistina winning the past four editions. James McDonald has partnered all four winners and will attempt to make it five consecutive victories aboard Aeliana, although this year's contest looks considerably more open.

Sir Delius has been prominent in betting throughout the spring and looks one of the leading contenders for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. The five-year-old has had two runs this preparation, most recently finishing fourth in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington behind Cosmic Crusader. 

He was one of the standout middle-distance performers during the autumn, claiming the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick ahead of Lindermann and Autumn Glow, and looks set to produce his best third-up. Craig Williams takes the ride from barrier five.

Aeliana is another major player after working home strongly to finish third in the Turnbull Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained mare was sixth in last year's Cox Plate before returning in the autumn to claim the Tancred Stakes (2400m) at Rosehill. She looks well suited by the 2000m at Flemington, although barrier 10 presents a challenge for James McDonald, who will be chasing an extraordinary fifth consecutive victory in the race.

Warwoven brings a fascinating form line into the contest following outstanding victories in the Golden Rose (1400m) and Caulfield Guineas (1600m). The Bjorn Baker-trained three-year-old has demonstrated an exceptional turn of foot against his own age group and now tackles older horses for the first time. The rise to 2000m is the obvious question, but his dam, Needle And Thread, won a Group 2 over that distance in New Zealand. Rachel King rides from barrier two, with the colt carrying just 49.5kg under the weight-for-age conditions.

Fellow three-year-old Blind Raise was runner-up to Warwoven in the Caulfield Guineas and also receives the significant weight allowance. The Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young-trained colt is by Ace High, suggesting the additional distance should be within his capabilities, although barrier nine makes his early positioning particularly important.

Three-year-olds have enjoyed some memorable Cox Plate victories, with eight successful since 1970. Shamus Award was the most recent in 2013, while So You Think, Savabeel and Octagonal are among the other notable winners. Interestingly, the Caulfield Guineas quinella of All Too Hard and Pierro went on to finish second and third respectively in the 2012 Cox Plate, providing an encouraging historical comparison for Warwoven and Blind Raise. Anamoe was a notable hard-luck story from the 2020 version of the race before going on to score at four in 2021. 

Light Infantry Man is another genuine contender and brings some of the strongest Flemington form into the race. The Ciaron Maher-trained galloper claimed the Australian Cup (2000m) earlier this year after an epic battle with Pride Of Jenni on a Soft track. He was runner-up in the Turnbull Stakes at his most recent appearance and looks particularly well suited by a genuinely run race. Harry Coffey takes the ride from barrier 11.

Ceolwulf could become a significant factor if the forecast rain arrives. The Joe Pride-trained galloper returns to 2000m after finishing runner-up to Autumn Glow in the King Charles III Stakes (1600m) at Randwick last weekend. He has demonstrated exceptional ability on testing ground, most notably when winning the Champions Mile (1600m) at Flemington on a Heavy surface last spring. The seven-day turnaround is a consideration, but a significant track downgrade would strengthen his claims.

Cosmic Crusader has established himself as a genuine Group 1 performer this spring, producing a dominant victory in the Turnbull Stakes on Heavy ground before finishing fourth in last weekend's Caulfield Cup (2400m). He now drops back in distance and faces another demanding assignment on the seven-day turnaround, although his recent form commands respect.

Land Legend brings another strong form line after producing a brilliant front-running victory in the Might And Power Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield. The Ciaron Maher-trained galloper established a new track record after being allowed to stride along in front, and connections selected barrier 12 with the first pick at the draw. Ethan Brown is likely to adopt similar tactics in an attempt to control proceedings.

Birdman was third behind Land Legend in the Might And Power Stakes and should be fitter for that performance. The Chris Waller-trained galloper claimed the Underwood Stakes (1800m) earlier in the spring and has shown he can compete at this level.

The remaining runners include Saint George and Middle Earth, who may have their sights set on the Melbourne Cup (3200m). Saint George finished runner-up in last weekend's Caulfield Cup, ahead of Cosmic Crusader, although he is less favourably treated under weight-for-age conditions. Middle Earth will be ridden by John Allen following Mark Zahra's injury in the Caulfield Cup, while Attrition faces a difficult task against such accomplished opposition.

There are several fascinating questions surrounding this year's Cox Plate. Can the three-year-olds reproduce their brilliant mile performances against seasoned weight-for-age performers? Will Land Legend be allowed to dictate proceedings from the front, or will the early pressure make this a genuine test of stamina? And just how much influence will the weather have on the final result?

With several genuine winning chances and contrasting racing styles, the first Cox Plate at Flemington promises to be a fascinating contest.

The speed map suggests a genuine to fast tempo, with several of the likely forward runners drawn towards the outside of the field. Land Legend looks the natural leader from barrier 12 following his track-record performance in the Might And Power Stakes, where he was allowed to stride along at a strong gallop.

Blind Raise has also demonstrated plenty of early speed and could push forward from barrier nine, although connections may prefer to settle just behind the leaders rather than become involved in an early speed battle. Light Infantry Man is another likely to work across from barrier 11, with Harry Coffey expected to find a position stalking the speed rather than attempting to lead.

Birdman has drawn barrier one and should enjoy an economical run close to the leaders, while Sir Delius looks particularly well placed from barrier five. Craig Williams should be able to settle the Waterhouse and Bott-trained galloper just behind the speed, giving him the opportunity to conserve energy before making his run.

Warwoven is another who should enjoy a favourable run from barrier two. The three-year-old has shown he can settle midfield and finish powerfully, although Rachel King may elect to have him a little closer to the speed with such a significant weight advantage.

Cosmic Crusader and Attrition are likely to settle around midfield, while Saint George and Middle Earth may be ridden more conservatively as they continue their preparations towards longer-distance assignments.

Aeliana is expected to settle in the second half of the field from barrier 10, while Ceolwulf should also be ridden patiently before attempting to work into the race in the long Flemington straight.

The most interesting tactical battle could unfold between Land Legend and the other forward runners. If Ethan Brown is allowed to dictate proceedings without excessive pressure, Land Legend could prove difficult to run down. However, if Blind Raise and Light Infantry Man force the issue early, the race may develop into a searching test of stamina.

That scenario would suit the proven middle-distance performers, particularly Sir Delius and Light Infantry Man, while giving the likes of Aeliana and Ceolwulf an opportunity to close strongly. Warwoven is the wildcard, with his exceptional acceleration and light weight potentially proving decisive if he can conserve enough energy for the final 400m.

Sir Delius appeals as the best bet in the Cox Plate. The five-year-old looks set to peak at his third run this preparation, having followed a similar path during the autumn when claiming the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick. He improved significantly on his earlier performances to defeat Lindermann and Autumn Glow on that occasion, recording a performance 16 lengths faster than standard benchmark. His fourth placing in the Turnbull Stakes was a solid lead-up, and he should strip considerably fitter for that run. The son of Frankel thrives in strongly contested races and has demonstrated the ability to sustain a high cruising speed when the pressure increases. He is also effective on rain-affected ground, making him one of the runners best equipped to handle a testing contest. Barrier five gives Craig Williams the opportunity to settle just behind the speed, and with the likelihood of a genuine tempo, he looks well placed to produce his best performance of the preparation.

Warwoven is the next best selection and looks capable of making a serious impression against the older horses. The three-year-old has been outstanding this spring, recording performances 14 lengths faster than standard benchmark in the Golden Rose (1400m) and 11 lengths faster in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m). Importantly, he produced the fastest final 400m and 200m sectionals in both races, demonstrating an exceptional ability to accelerate after sustaining a strong tempo. The rise to 2000m is the obvious query, but his pedigree offers encouragement and the spacious Flemington circuit should give him every opportunity to settle into a rhythm. Rachel King should be able to conserve ground from barrier two, while his 49.5kg impost represents a significant 9.5kg advantage over the older male runners. If he can reproduce his brilliant finishing burst over the additional distance, he is capable of challenging the established weight-for-age performers.

Light Infantry Man looks the best value selection in the Cox Plate. The seven-year-old has already demonstrated that he can produce elite performances over the Flemington 2000m, most notably when claiming the Australian Cup earlier this year after a memorable battle with Pride Of Jenni. He went 16 lengths faster than standard benchmark on that occasion and produced another strong performance when runner-up in the Turnbull Stakes last time, going 11 lengths faster than standard. The Ciaron Maher-trained galloper is particularly effective when allowed to build momentum behind a genuine tempo, and the expected early pressure should play to his strengths. Barrier 11 presents a challenge, but Harry Coffey should be able to work across and find cover behind the leaders. His proven Flemington record, effectiveness on rain-affected ground and ability to sustain a long run make him an attractive each-way proposition.