Australian Oaks Racing Tips - Profoundly to serve it up to the Kiwi filly, Ohope Wins
- Profoundly is the top pick after an impressive Adrian Knox Stakes performance, showcasing stamina and speed.
- Ohope Wins, strong at an extended distance, aims to improve after the Vinery Stud Stakes.
- Classic Gem offers value betting potential with solid past performance and room for improvement.
2026 Australian Oaks Preview
- 2026 Australian Oaks Preview
- 2026 Australian Oaks Speed Map
- 2026 Australian Oaks Best Bet
- 2026 Australian Oaks Value Bet
Profoundly will stamp herself as the superior autumn staying filly by taking out the first of the Group 1 races on Day Two of The Championships at Randwick.
The Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) winner is second in the line of betting at the $3.50, behind the Vinery Stud Stakes 4th placegetter, Ohope Wins at $2.45, with After Summer and Soverato next in betting around the $8.50–$9 range, while Classic Gem appeals as the knockout value at double figures.
This year’s form lines are dominated by the Adrian Knox Stakes and the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), with seven runners emerging from the Adrian Knox and four from the Vinery.
The Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) is the superior lead up to the Oaks from an historical point of view but Profoundly produced the best last-start figure of any runner in the field when she settled worse than midfield in the Adrian Knox before unleashing the fastest final 400m and 200m, scoring in a run that rated 9.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark. Soverato was runner-up there, Satono Invader filled 3rd, while Classic Gem lost no admirers after racing wide without cover and still finishing fifth.
The Vinery brings a different shape profile. The tempo there was very slow early and turned into a sit-sprint, which did not suit Ohope Wins. Despite that, she was still solid in 4th and now profiles as one of the major improvers stepping to 2400m, given her dominant NZ Oaks win at that trip
After Summer, who was runner-up and protested unsuccessfully, brings excellent staying credentials through her Victoria Oaks (2500m) 3rd in the spring, which rated 10.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark, the strongest proven figure tied to this field.
2026 Australian Oaks Speed Map
A genuine staying tempo looks likely, which should ensure this becomes a true 2400m contest rather than a sit-and-sprint.
Stand My Ground and After Summer are the two most likely to inject pace, while Satono Invader can also roll into the race early to keep the pressure genuine.
That shape should allow Profoundly to settle in the ideal stalking role, conserving energy before launching late exactly as she did in the Adrian Knox.
Ohope Wins maps to enjoy a much better run than she had in the Vinery and should improve sharply getting out to the mile and a half.
Long Legs gets the dream economical run from barrier 1 and shapes as one of the key runners to fill the placings if the favourites overcook it.
The key takeaway from the map is simple: this race will be decided by which filly truly runs out the 2400m strongest, and the expected tempo should remove any excuses.
2026 Australian Oaks Best Bet
Profoundly
Profoundly looks the filly trending perfectly into the Oaks.
She is improving with every run this preparation, the step to 2400m looks ideal and her Adrian Knox performance suggested she is thriving as the distances increase.
The way she gave them a start and still let down with the best late sectionals of the meeting strongly suggests she has the stamina and turn of foot required to win a Randwick Oaks.
There is obvious respect for Ohope Wins, particularly as a New Zealand filly stepping to a more suitable trip, but she has been up for a while now and there is a slight query as to how much improvement is still there after the Vinery.
Profoundly, by contrast, looks the horse still climbing.
2026 Australian Oaks Value Bet
Classic Gem
Classic Gem appeals as the best value runner in the race.
Her Adrian Knox run was far better than the bare result after racing wide without cover throughout and still boxing on well enough to remain within striking distance.
She now comes into this third-up, a perfect profile for a staying filly looking to peak at the right time.
The Dom Sutton stable has two serious players in the race and there does not appear to be much between them on upside, but Classic Gem offers the bigger price and the better value profile.
If she gets a softer run in transit, she can absolutely improve sharply into the placings and threaten the major players late.
Verdict
Australian Oaks Tips
Profoundly
Win
@5/2 - 5 Units
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