Winx Stakes Racing Tips - Sheza Alibi to overhaul Autumn Glow in mouth-watering Winx Stakes clash

The $1 million feature has attracted a cracking field of 14, with 12 of those resuming, but the market says it is all about the two stars. Autumn Glow heads betting at $1.95 ahead of Sheza Alibi at $2.90, with a huge gap to Beiwacht and Lady Shenandoah at $20, Gringotts at $21 and Aeliana, Ceolwulf and Fangirl at $27. Chris Waller remarkably saddles up eight runners as he chases a 10th win in the race, while track conditions add another layer of intrigue. Randwick was rated a Soft 7 on Wednesday and, with up to 7mm forecast for Friday, there is every chance the field will face a rain-affected surface. The two glamour mares have both drawn beautifully, setting the scene for a genuine heavyweight clash.

Autumn Glow returns as one of the highest-rated horses in the country after a remarkable campaign that took her career record to 11 wins from 12 starts. The Chris Waller-trained mare was nine lengths faster than standard when resuming with victory over the track and trip in the Apollo Stakes last preparation and produced consistently elite figures throughout the autumn, including on rain-affected ground. Her unbeaten streak finally came to an end when stretched to 2000m for the first time in a strongly run Queen Elizabeth Stakes, finishing 3rd behind Sir Delius. Waller has again brought her along quietly through the trials and James McDonald should have every opportunity to give her an economical run from barrier 3.

Sheza Alibi brings the X-factor. The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman-trained mare announced herself as one of the stars of Australian racing last autumn, demolishing the boys by 3.2 lengths in the Randwick Guineas before producing an extraordinary performance to win the Doncaster Mile by 4.3 lengths. Connections originally appeared likely to wait another week for the Memsie Stakes, but strong work at Pakenham convinced them to head north for the Group 1 assignment. She has drawn the inside alley in barrier 1 and Luke Nolen should be able to conserve energy before looking for clear air in the straight.

Can anything spoil the party? There is certainly enough quality in the field if the two favourites are below their best. Fangirl is a previous winner of the race and has also finished 2nd and 3rd in other editions, while Aeliana was runner-up behind Via Sistina last year. Beiwacht, Lady Shenandoah, Gringotts and Idle Flyer add further depth, while Ceolwulf owns an enormous peak figure after going 17.2 lengths faster than standard when winning the Champions Mile at Flemington. His first-up record of six starts without a win and just one minor placing, however, suggests he may need the outing.

The Winx Stakes has been won by some of the greats, including Kingston Town, Sunline, Lonhro, Winx, Verry Elleegant, Anamoe and Via Sistina. The first Group 1 of the Australian racing season may just be its best, with Race 9 at Randwick set to jump at 4:30pm on Saturday.

Lindermann looks the likely leader from barrier 12, with Beiwacht and Midnight Dynamite prominent and Autumn Glow ideally positioned just behind them from barrier 3. Gringotts should settle around the on-pace/midfield mark, while Sheza Alibi maps midfield from barrier 1 and may require some luck getting away from the fence when the pressure goes on. Aeliana and Idle Flyer should settle around midfield, with Lady Shenandoah, Ceolwulf and Green Spaces further back and Fangirl likely to be among the last few. There doesn't appear to be an abundance of pressure on paper, which could favour Autumn Glow given James McDonald can potentially land close to the speed without spending anything, while Luke Nolen may need to be patient aboard Sheza Alibi and wait for the race to open up.

Sheza Alibi looks the better betting proposition of the two glamour mares at the prices. She showed she can fire fresh when going 10.4 lengths faster than standard first-up at Caulfield last autumn, weaving through traffic before putting her rivals away in dominant fashion. Her peak came on a Soft track at Randwick in the Doncaster, where she went approximately 15 lengths faster than standard despite carrying just 49kg, and there is every reason to think she can return at a similar level as a four-year-old. She has never raced on a Heavy track, so significant rain would create a question mark, but with only 0-7mm forecast for Friday that is a relatively minor concern at this stage. Autumn Glow is a genuine superstar, but at $1.95 versus $2.90, Sheza Alibi appeals as the better betting option.

A blowout looks unlikely given the quality of the two favourites, but Aeliana appeals as the best option at $27, particularly for place and First Four exotics. The Chris Waller-trained mare was runner-up to Via Sistina in this race last year and has an excellent record at Randwick over 1400m, while she also finished runner-up in the Apollo Stakes and wasn't far from Autumn Glow when they met in the Verry Elleegant Stakes earlier this year. She will almost certainly improve with the run and over further, but the anticipated race shape should allow her to settle comfortably around midfield before working into the race. If Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi dominate as expected, Aeliana has the class and track-and-trip credentials to be the one picking up the pieces.