Cox Plate Tips - Via Sistina to go back to back or is there an X-factor that can spoil the party?
- Via Sistina leads the 2025 Cox Plate odds, aiming for a back-to-back win.
- Antino and Aeliana present strong challenges with strategic potential.
- Nepotism, the lone three-year-old, offers value due to favorable conditions.
2025 Cox Plate Preview
- 2025 Cox Plate Preview
- 2025 Cox Plate Speed Map
- 2025 Cox Plate Best Bet
- 2025 Cox Plate Value Bet
The 2025 WS Cox Plate (2040m) promises to be a fitting finale to Moonee Valley’s famous amphitheatre before redevelopment — a small but elite field of nine Group 1 winners ready to etch their name into history.
Defending champion Via Sistina ($2) heads the market as she attempts to claim back-to-back Plates after her record-breaking victory last year. The Chris Waller-trained mare comes into this fourth-up and looks to have peaked at the right time, producing a six-lengths-faster-than-standard performance when third in the Turnbull Stakes behind Sir Delius. That was off a slow tempo, yet her last 600m was slightly superior to what she produced in the same race last year before exploding in the Cox Plate.
Twelve months ago she improved 10 lengths on figures from the Turnbull to the Plate, and in the autumn she lifted another eight when taking the Queen Elizabeth at Caulfield. James McDonald retains the ride from barrier 5, and all indicators point to a mare tracking perfectly for another devastating performance.
Antino ($3.50) looks the logical danger after an excellent second in the Turnbull. The Queensland star did most of the chasing that day, recording the fastest 600–400m split before peaking late on his run. From gate 6, Blake Shinn can again park just behind the speed, and his tactical nous could keep McDonald honest mid-race if tempo slackens.
Stablemate Aeliana ($6) also emerges from the Turnbull (5th) and has clear upside. The ATC Derby winner improved sharply at this stage of her last prep and has been building fitness with each run. With the “Winx parallels” and Hugh Bowman back aboard, she looms as the X-factor for Waller, providing the stable a potent one-two punch.
The Might And Power (2000m) at Caulfield offers another key form reference, with Globe (1st), Treasurethe Moment (2nd), and Buckaroo (3rd) all reappearing here. It was a four-horse race, but Globe rolled along in front and still clocked 11.7 lengths faster than standard, holding his rivals comfortably. He maps to control the race again if cleared to start. Treasurethe Moment may still be recovering from her earlier setback, while forecast wet weather could enhance Buckaroo’s claims, as he relishes soft conditions.
Two others — Attrition ($26) and Light Infantry Man ($21) — arrive on the one-week back-up after the Hill Stakes at Randwick, finishing 2nd and 9th respectively. While both may lack the top-end class, it’s worth noting that Light Infantry Man ran 21 lengths faster than standard in his Australian Cup win earlier in the year, though the form around that race hasn’t held strongly.
Finally, Nepotism ($26) brings intrigue as the lone three-year-old, carrying just 49.5kg. His Caulfield Guineas seventh was better than it looks on paper — beaten four lengths but producing the fastest splits from the 600m to 200m before being held up late. The stable has an outstanding record with three-year-olds in this race — All Too Hard (2nd, 2012), Viscount (3rd, 2001), and Octagonal (winner, 1995).
Historically, the age group has held its own. Since Shamus Award (2013): 13 runners, 0 wins, 4 placings (including Broadsiding 3rd last year). Since So You Think (2009): 19 runners, 2 wins, 6 placings.
The record says it’s tough — but not impossible.
2025 Cox Plate Speed Map
With just nine runners, tempo and tactics are everything. Expect Globe to push forward from barrier 7, with Treasurethe Moment booting up from the inside to either lead or trail. Nepotism can hold a forward midfield position from 3 to ensure a genuine tempo. Antino and Via Sistina stalk just behind, while Aeliana, Buckaroo, and Attrition settle midfield. Light Infantry Man is likely to drop back and sweep late.
If the leaders overdo it, Via Sistina will be perfectly poised to pounce. If the tempo dawdles, expect Shinn on Antino to make a mid-race move to inject pace and test the favourite’s turn of foot.
2025 Cox Plate Best Bet
Via Sistina ($2) — Defending champ and track record holder who thrives at The Valley. Her Turnbull run screamed “ready,” and her historical pattern suggests another sharp ratings spike here. If tempo is genuine, she’ll storm over the top again.
2025 Cox Plate Value Bet
Nepotism ($26) — The three-year-old wildcard. Light weight, strong sectionals in the Guineas, and a stable that knows how to place its young guns. If he takes the next step, he could shock a few late and run a bold race at big odds.
Verdict
Cox Plate Tips
Via Sistina (Best)
Cox Plate
@1/1 - 10 Units
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Nepotism (Value)
Cox Plate
@25/1 - 1 Unit
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with referral code BETSAU
Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.
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