Turnbull Stakes Racing Tips – Aeliana set to strike third-up at Flemington

The Group 1 Turnbull Stakes is traditionally one of the pivotal races of the Melbourne Spring Carnival and another strong field assembles for the 2000m feature at Flemington on Saturday. 

The race has been won by some outstanding horses in recent years, including Winx, Verry Elleegant and Via Sistina, while Sir Delius returns attempting to defend the crown he won 12 months ago.

Sir Delius resumed with a fourth placing behind Sheza Alibi in the Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m at Flemington, where the slow tempo was against a horse whose greatest asset is his stamina. He should improve sharply getting to 2000m second-up, just as he did during his previous preparation, although the Cox Plate remains his major target later in the spring.

Aeliana looks ready to peak. The Chris Waller-trained mare was never really suited first-up over 1400m in the Winx Stakes before producing a much better performance when runner-up to Autumn Glow in the 7 Stakes over 1600m at Randwick. She produced the fastest final 200m of the race and now gets to 2000m third-up, which is the same stage of her autumn preparation at which she improved more than eight lengths on benchmark figures to win the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes.

Cosmic Crusader brings strong Melbourne form after finishing runner-up to Birdman in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. He has finished in the top three in all four Melbourne runs and had previously won the Bletchingly Stakes and P.B. Lawrence Stakes before finishing third in the Memsie. Birdman is absent here, leaving Cosmic Crusader as one of the strongest representatives from that form line.

Zahrann is the only last-start winner in the field after taking out the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield second-up, while Saint George and Asterix filled the minor placings in that race. Buckaroo finished fifth in the Underwood and was runner-up in this race two years ago on rain-affected ground, while Middle Earth was ninth in the Underwood but produced the second-fastest final 200m and should appreciate getting out to 2000m.

The weather could also play an important role, with rain forecast around Melbourne leading into Saturday. Aeliana has already demonstrated her effectiveness with give in the ground, while Middle Earth and Buckaroo are among those who should also be comfortable if Flemington deteriorates into the Soft or Heavy range.

There does not appear to be an abundance of natural speed in the Turnbull. Light Infantry Man can roll forward from barrier three, while She’s A Hustler and Half Yours are capable of taking up prominent positions.

Cosmic Crusader should be around the first few from barrier four, while Aeliana has the draw to save ground from barrier two and settle somewhere around midfield without needing to spend anything early.

Sir Delius will likely to take up a prominent spot by working up early from barrier nine, with Middle Earth likely to settle towards the rear. A moderate tempo could make positioning important, although the long Flemington straight will give the stronger stayers their opportunity late.

Aeliana looks ready to peak third-up. Her second behind Autumn Glow in the 7 Stakes was an excellent stepping stone to this and the rise from 1600m to 2000m is firmly in her favour. At the corresponding stage of her autumn campaign she improved sharply to win the Ranvet Stakes, defeating Lindermann and Sir Delius, and she now arrives at Flemington with a very similar platform. She handles rain-affected ground, draws barrier two and should be able to conserve energy before producing her run in the straight. With the race fitness on her side, Aeliana is the one to beat.

Middle Earth can improve sharply getting to 2000m third-up. He finished ninth in the Underwood Stakes but his run had merit, producing the second-fastest final 200m after settling back in the field. At the same stage of his previous preparation he improved significantly on benchmark figures when stepping from 1600m to 2000m when scoring in Queensland and he is another who should have no problem if the forecast rain arrives. Flemington and the extra distance give him the opportunity to settle before building through his gears, making him an appealing value runner.