Flemington Racing Tips for October 3 – Natural Fling the one to beat in Danehill Stakes

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which features the Turnbull Stakes, as well as some other important Spring feature race lead ups.

Vallice can be an improver in the Group 2 Super Impose Stakes as the three-year-olds step up to 1800m, with a number of runners on a Victoria Derby path. The Kieran Ma-trained gelding won on a Heavy track at Sandown in June and has had three runs since returning from a nine-week break, with excuses in the first two. He finished fifth behind Blind Raise in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m last time, settling back before producing the second-fastest final 200m and looking as though he was only beginning to warm up late. The step to 1800m looks ideal for the progressive three-year-old and his proven Heavy-track form is another positive with rain around.

Natural Fling looks the one to beat in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes, with the filly taking on the colts and geldings. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained daughter of former Coolmore Stud Stakes winner Home Affairs has had four starts for two wins, a runner-up finish in the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast and a third against the older horses in the Moir Stakes. She started $3 favourite in the Moir on Soft ground and briefly looked the winner before being run down by My Gladiola and Cavalry Girl, having previously been a four-length winner of the Quezette Stakes at Caulfield. Natural Fling has gone more than 10 lengths faster than standard benchmark in both runs this preparation, something none of her rivals here have achieved. She is proven on Soft ground, drops back to her own age group and draws towards what is often the preferred part of the track in Flemington straight races, with Damien Lane aboard.

Aeliana looks ready to peak third-up in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m. The Chris Waller-trained mare was never really suited first-up over 1400m in the Winx Stakes before improving sharply when runner-up to Autumn Glow in the 7 Stakes over 1600m, producing the fastest final 200m of the race. She gets to 2000m at the same stage of her preparation at which she improved more than eight lengths on benchmark figures to win the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes during the autumn, defeating Lindermann and Via Sistina. Aeliana handles rain-affected ground, draws ideally in barrier two and should get an economical run before being produced in the Flemington straight. She looks ready to produce her best.

Hedged can go close in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes down the Flemington straight over 1200m. The Gavin Beddgood-trained gelding has had two runs this preparation and did all the hard work in front at Flemington on September 12 before being run down late by Losesomewinmore. He meets that horse 4.5kg better at the weights this time and now comes into the race third-up. At the same stage of his previous campaign he improved nine lengths on benchmark figures when runner-up in the Village Stakes at Caulfield despite being held up. He is already a previous winner down the Flemington straight over 1100m, appears to be racing in career-best form and may be able to take a sit behind Desert Lightning before being produced late.