Queensland Derby Tips - Runner-by-Runner Guide for the Eagle Farm Group 1
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to Queensland Derby
- Who will take out the Eagle Farm Group 1?
- Top selections include Warmonger, Autumn Angel, Moonlight Magic and Tannhauser
The Group 1 Queensland Derby is run over 2400m at Eagle Farm race course under weight-for-age conditions for three-year-old stayers.
First run in 1868, the race has ben won by some champion staying horses including Tulloch (1957), Kingston Town (1980) and Rough Habit (1990).
We’ve run through every runner in this year’s edition and offer our thoughts and top four selections below.
1.Tannhauser (3)
Broke through for just the second win of his career two weeks ago in the Rough Habit over 2000m but he’s been competitive in black type races right throughout his career.
The son of Dundeel steps out to 2400m for the first time and has drawn ideally in barrier three.
He beat Autumn Angel fair and square two weeks ago and I can’t see why he couldn’t do it again.
2.Warmonger (23)
Has finished second in two of his last three races including being beaten just over a length in the Group 1 South Australian Derby at Morphettville.
He made 13th at the 800m in the S.A Derby and made up considerable ground late, showing a god turn of foot at the end of 2500m.
Fitness won’t be an issue at this stage of his campaign and despite the wide barrier, he looks one of the leading chances.
3.Encoder (18)
Won a Group 3 over 2100m at Eagle Farm back in December where he showed a really good turn of foot late in the race to win by a length on the line.
He’s failed to win since but has been far from disgraced in some pretty handy racs and he is one that looks disrespected by the market a bit.
4.Gold Bullion (10)
Was beaten by the barest of margins behind Kintyre two starts back in the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick.
Finished four lengths behind Tanhausser two weeks ago but he’s a better horse than tha and any rain will only help his chances.
5. Navy King (13)
Has been racing consistently right throughout this campaign which started right back in January and consists of nine starts.
A string of five unplaced runs was broken with a nice win at headquarters in an open 3YO race which he won by 1.5 lengths and they beat home the third horse by a further seven.
If he repeats that effort he is right in this race at a big price.
6.Kirikan (8)
Finished a length behind Encoder at Group 3 level back in December over 2100m proving he is a horse of some ability over the staying distance.
He has failed to feature in three runs so far this prep but he finally gets out to a more suitable distance.
Seems over the odds for a horse that is Group 3 placed at 2100m.
7.Felix The Scat (22)
Has placed only once in his last 10 trips to the races and has shown little to suggest he’d be competitive in a race of this quality.
8.Sonofdec (21)
Comes into this race off the back of two wins by a combined 3.3 lengths at Newcastle and Scone.
The son of Kermedec has four wins from just seven career starts and although this is a big step up in grade, and he’s drawn a horrendous barrier, he’s not the worst.
9.Bullets High (14)
Broke through for the second win of his short racing career in a benchmark 72 at Warwick Farm last start over 2130m.
The Joe Pride trained gelding showed a good turn of foot at the end of that race to score by a small margin but they did beat the third horse by a further three lengths.
Would need to improve dramatically again.
10.Agita (6)
Another progressive type of horse that is racing consistently at a lower level.
His two career wins have been over 1600m but he is a horse that he’ll be suited out over this sort of distance.
Has been slowly working up to this and with natural improvement, he can feature in the first half the field.
11.Warialda Warrior (7)
Won a benchmark 58 at Wagga in April and has been far from disgraced in black type races since without placing.
Fitness won’t be an issue and he looks a blow out chance at a big price.
12.First Innings (12)
This will be the eighth run of what is his debut campaign but he made his Australian racing debut with a win at Ipswich over 2180m two weeks ago.
Was beaten over 15 lengths in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby behind Ochestrial and that filly was beaten by Autumn Angel in the Australian Oaks.
Fitness certainly won’t be an issue.
13.Shy Guy (4)
Was beaten over three lengths by the above horse at Ipswich last start so I’m not sure how he wins a race of this quality.
14.Saban (16)
Broke through for his maiden at Cranbourne at start four two back before stepping up sharply in grade at Flemington last time out.
The Moody trained gelding was 10th at the 800m that day at headquarters and whilst he looked very green during the straight, he still showed a good turn of foot to finish second.
With natural improvement he can feature in the finish.
15.Anderson Bridge (15)
Has been well beaten at his last four in a much easier grade of racing.
Can’t see him being competitive in a race of this quality.
16.Purveyor (11)
Has finished in the top two in four of his eight career starts.
His breeding doesn’t scream out 2400m and his talent doesn’t scream out Group 1 winner.
17.Moonlight Magic (19)
Beat home First Innings by three lengths last start at Group 3 level in New Zealand over 2100m.
1
And we are getting double the price!
Barrier doesn’t help but she is plenty fit and worth an each way play!
18.Autumn Angel (1)
She’s the only Group 1 winner in the field and she proved she can mix it with the boys by storming home in the Rough Habit to just miss.
The daughter of The Autumn Sun had a month in between runs after winning the Group 1 Australian Oaks over this distance and on exposed form she has lengths on this field.
Barrier one will mean she may have a fair few roadblocks in her way when heading around the turn which is why I’m a bit shy at $2.50 but there’s no denying she is the horse to beat.
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: No. 2 Warmonger
2nd: No. 18 Autumn Angel
3rd: No. 17 Moonlight Magic
4th: No. 1 Tanhausser
1st: No. 2 Warmonger
2nd: No. 18 Autumn Angel
3rd: No. 17 Moonlight Magic
4th: No. 1 Tanhausser
Warmonger
Each-Way
@9/1 - 2 Units
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