Doomben Cup Tips - Runner-by-Runner Guide for the Doomben Group 1
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to Doomben Cup
- Who will take out the Doomben Group 1?
- A $21 roughie offers each-way value
The Group 1 Doomben Cup is run over 2000m for three-year-old’s and up under weight-for-age conditions with total prize money of $1 million.
First run in 1933 it has been won by some champion local and interstate horse including Bernborough (1946), Might and Power (1998) and Zaaki (2021).
Another cracking field has been assembled this year and we have gone through every runner below.
1. Numerian (7)
Went extremely close to winning the race last year when beaten a small margin behind Huetor and arguably comes into the race in 2024 in better form.
Unlike last year he comes into this race second up after a dominant win in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes on the Sunshine Coast on a heavy 10.
His record on the rain affected track is excellent but i’m not sure he gets that on Saturday and he’s yet to win second up during his career.
2. Huetor (11)
Looking to become the first horse since Rough Habit to win the race in consecutive years.
He hadn’t won a race since last year’s Doomben Cup until he broke through at Randwick at Group 3 level two starts back on a heavy track over 2000m.
They went too slow for him in the Hollindale but despite making up some ground in the straight, he was a touch disappointing.
Will need to improve on that effort but he should be nearing peak fitness at this stage in his campaign.
3. Kovalica (3)
The Chris Waller trained gelding’s last win came this time last year when he took out the QLD Derby over 2400m and we all pin pointed him as a stayer to look out for.
Waller has kept him to the shorter distances and he did go within a nose of winning the Epsom during the spring carnival.
He produced the best run of his campaign when third in the Hollindale but was still well beaten and I can’t have him as short as his current quote.
4. Detonator Jack (10)
All three runs so far this prep have been excellent and he tends to get better the deeper he gets into his campaigns.
He was beaten just over two lengths in the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap and then beaten by the barest of margins at Group 3 level last time out..
This is his first go at 2000m but he is such a consistent horse that his will power will take him a long way.
5. Vow And Declare (5)
The Melbourne Cup winner is now eight years of age but still racing really well.
It has been a little while in between wins but he started this campaign with a narrow second behind Campionessa at Caulfield and was then beaten only two lengths in the Group 1 Australian Cup.
He’s much better suited to the bigger track at Eagle Farm but his class will take him a long way and he’s drawn to get a lovely run in transit.
6. Serpentine (16)
Started this campaign with two impressive wins at black type level at Randwick and Rosehill where he led all of the way in both races.
The Williams team then put him in the Sydney Cup but I’m not convinced that he stays the distance despite being beaten just under three lengths.
Three of his five career wins have been at 2000m and the wide barrier won’t be an issue as he’s go forward.
Looks well over the odds.
7. Young Werther (1)
Sometimes horses sneak up to Queensland and go under the radar a bit and the market has not respected this horse in my opinion.
In the past he has had a habit of not winning but he has consistently raced at Group 1 level and placed five times from nine starts at this grade.
Three of his four career wins have come in his last eight starts and he’s well over the odds.
My main concern is barrier one and also I feel he is much better suited to a bigger track.
8. El Bodegon (15)
Hasn’t looked like winning a race in over two years and that doesn’t change here.
9. Hoo Ya Mal (14)
Came to Australia with pretty big wraps but is yet to win from sevens starts since arriving.
The five year-old gelding has been close in a couple of Group 2 events but was well beaten in the Hollindale first up.
Would need to find another level to win this.
10. Naval College (13)
Loomed up like he was going to challenge at the 300m in the Hollindale but just peaked on his run and dropped out pretty badly in the end.
Closed out last campaign with three wins in a row with two being at Listed level.
That is probably more his grade.
11. Bois D’argent (9)
Another that is better suited to a couple of grade below this.
Was well beaten over 2400m on the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago and he looks the right price.
12. Fawkner Park (8)
Has now won seven of his 15 career race starts and comes into this race off the back of back to back Listed wins at Wagga and Albury.
He’s won four times from six runs at this distance and six of his seven wins have been on a good track which he may get on Saturday.
Drawn well and although this is his first go at Group 1 level, he’s racing well at the moment.
13. Hezashocka (6)
Turned his form around somewhat when third behind Huetor two back and then beat home Sir Lucan at Newcastle in a Listed race last time out over 2200m.
His best performances have been on soft or heavy going but the distance will not be a concern, nor will fitness.
Drawn well.
14. New Endeavour (4)
Has progressively improved with each run this campaign and was denied by the barest of margins at Doomben last Saturday behind Spirit Ridge in a competitive race.
Was beaten only three lengths behind Obamburaimai in the Golden Eagle back in November which proves he is a classy individual on his day and he will be ready to peak now at his fourth run.
He’s not suited at weight-for-age in my opinion but he is still well over the odds from the good draw in barrier four.
15. Amokura (12)
Took out the Group 1 Queensland Oaks during last winter in impressive style and was beaten less than half a length to Deny Knowledge in the Matriarch during the spring.
She was well beaten first up at Rosehill over an unsuitable distance but she’s never performed fresh in the past.
Expect a big improvement from her and her class will take her a long way.
16. Kind Words (2)
The second filly in the race and she has been given no chance by the market.
The daughter of Written Tycoon was beaten only 2.7 lengths behind Autumn Angel in the Australian Oaks and then placed behind a very good filly in Amazonian Lass two weeks ago.
This is clearly another step up against the older horses but $200?!
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: No. 6 Serpentine
2nd: No. 7 Young Werther
3rd: No. 3 Kovalica
4th: No. 14 New Endeavour
1st: No. 6 Serpentine
2nd: No. 7 Young Werther
3rd: No. 3 Kovalica
4th: No. 14 New Endeavour
Serpentine
Each-Way
@20/1 - 2 Units
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