Epsom Handicap Tips - Who will prevail in the famous Randwick race over the mile?

Four runners come out of the 7 Stakes (1600m) that was held at Randwick on September 21 and taken out by Fangirl, who is not in the Epsom Handicap. 

They include the likely race favourite for this, Royal Patronage, who was 3rd. My Oberon was runner-up, while Detonator Jack and Major Beel were 4th and 5th. 

My Oberon went 5.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark figures, which is down on his best and due to the slow early pace. Royal Patronage endured a poor start and was back in the field before running on. He was a strong winner prior to that when going 11.7 lengths faster than standard to take out the Tramway Stakes (1400m) at his first Australian run. Major Beel led that day and couldn't capitalise on the slow pace but meets that trio significantly better at the weights. 

Kovalica, Nugget and Democracy Manifest were among the beaten brigade behind Royal Patronage in the Tramway and have not had a run since. Nugget was never really clear but produced the second fastest last 200m and has produced a number of big performances over the Randwick mile in the past. 

Ceolwulf is an interesting contender. One of eight in the race for trainer Chris Waller, he drops in trip after finishing runner-up in the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) behind the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) contender, Eliyass. The four-year-old went 12.4 lengths faster than standard in that race. 

His stablemate, Chrysaor, comes in with the best last start benchmark figures of any runner, having gone a whopping 17.4 lengths faster than standard when winning at Flemington in the Vale Black Caviar Plate (1400m) on September 14. 

That figure is an outlier compared to previous performances but it is worth noting that he drops to 51.5kg and was a winner at Group 2 level over the 1600m last year. 

Make what you want of Tom Kitten, who came back a winner as a gelding over the 1400m at Rosehill before not much went his way when 5th in the Bill Ritchie Handicap (1400m) at Randwick on September 21. McHale won that race, going just 4.6 lengths faste than standard, while Kintyre was 4th. 

Rough hopes go to Arctic Glamour, Brekshire Shadow and Rediener. Firestorm has been specked at odds and will be out to make it three wins in a row. 

This is a typically tough Epsom Handicap and there are a stack of hopes. I have narrowed it down to three each-way chances and they are Chrysaor, Nugget and Major Beel. Of that trio, I have Chrysaor on top and that comes on the back of his last start performance at Flemington, while he was an impressive winner the last time he tackled the Randwick 1600m, overcoming trouble to take out the $1 million Callander-Presnell. He draws perfectly in barrier 5 for this with Craig Williams coming up to take the ride. 

It is hard to ignore Nugget’s form over the 1600m at Randwick. He has had five starts over the 1600m here for a win in an easier race, a 3rd in the Doncaster, a 4th in another Doncaster and a 4th in the King Charles III Stakes (1600m) last year. I wouldn't have minded the Ciaron Maher-trained galloper having had one more run in the lead up to this but we must respect the stable and the eight-year-old has been supported in the market since the barrier draw. He just needs to find a nice spot in the run from barrier 11 and he can challenge them late.