Black Caviar Lightning Tips - Rising star to be hard to beat, while a 1000m specialist looms as value

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A field of 12 have accepted for the famous Flemington sprint that is named after the champion mare, Black Caviar. 

Switzerland is one of three horses in the race aged three and is favourite for the $1 million scamper after his dazzling win down the Flemington straight last year in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m). 

The Chris Waller youngster went nearly 16 lengths faster than standard benchmark in that race, which is a second best figure than what any other horse in this race has produced in the past two years. 

The son of Snitzel failed at his previous first up run behind Traffic Warden, who is also right in the market for this race, alongside Growing Empire, with the three-year-olds occupying the first three spots in the market. 

I wouldn't be too concerned by the run of Switzerland when fresh last time, while it is worth noting that all bar two gallopers in the Lightning Stakes will be resuming, while we know he loves the straight. 

Growing Empire (3rd) and Traffic Wardern (10th) were among the beaten brigade in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Both have trialled well leading into this. Traffic Wardern has won at the distance, while Growing Empire tackles the five furlongs for the first time. 

We dont seem to have an out and out A’grader amongst the ranks in the older horses. However, I Am Me must be respected first up and flew when fresh at Randwick last year, taking out the Concorde Stakes ahead of some big names, including Bella Nipotina, who went on to win the Everest. The stablemate of Growing Empire went 14.2 lengths faster than standard that day. 

Way To The Stars was 3rd in the same race and boasts a first up record of four wins from six starts, which is identical to I Am Me’s fresh stats

Benedetta appears for the first time since last winter and may need the run, as well as the 1200m. She boasts the best benchmark figures that any runner has produced in the last two years by going more than 17 lenghts faster than standard benchmark when 4th in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) last year. 

Philosopher and Joyful Fortune are rough hopes but have a slight fitness edge. Mazu, Mornington Glory and Skybird are other chances in the race that are likely to need to produce a personal best to challenge the favourites. Of that trio, it is worth noting that Mornington Glory produced quick time at the track and trip just over a year ago in weaker grade, but he might be a tier below some of these. 

Pace should be on from the get-go with Mazu, Way To The Stars, Growing Empire and Philosopher among a few that like to bowl along in front. I Am Me should be up there as well. Switzerland and Traffic Warden will look to obtain cover just behind the leading bunch with Switzerland drawing the grandstand side, which can be an advantage at times. 

Betting moves in the lead up just prior to the race will be telling. Switzerland certainly ticks enough boxes for mine and will be out to follow the blueprint that Waller set with Home Affairs in 2021/22 with that horse taking out the Coolmore Stud/Lightning double. Waller also claimed this race with Nature Strip. I suspect that he will be primed for a big run and James McDonald has a few options from barrier 7, depending on how the two earlier straight track races play out on the day. 

Mornington Glory might not have measured up in slightly easier grade at the back end of his last preparation but I do like his form over the 1000m that reads as five wins from as many starts, while the six-year-old went a healthy 11.5 lengths faster than standard at his only go over the Flemington 1000m, defeating Johnny Rocker, who then went on to push Imperatriz. He produced consistent figures all throughout his last preparation, particularly over the 1000m when winning three on the trot. The Gavin Bedggood-trained galloper draws the grandstand side and is a decent challenger for a podium finish.