Caulfield Racing Tips for October 17 – Aemond to strike early on Caulfield Cup day

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which also feature in our daily selections.

An intriguing support race on Caulfield Cup Day, with some promising three-year-olds lining up in the Gothic Stakes (1400m). Aemond steps up sharply in distance after sticking on well in a fiercely run 1100m contest last start, finishing third behind Threads. The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained galloper was held up at a crucial stage and lost momentum before recovering to finish just over a length from the winner. He recorded a performance more than 10 lengths faster than standard benchmark, a superior figure to anything his rivals have produced throughout their careers to date. The son of Written Tycoon should appreciate the rise to 1400m and has the tactical speed to push forward and settle handy in the early stages. He was a dominant winner at Bendigo on debut, and the market support since acceptances suggests he is poised to run another big race.

Keen on the unbeaten Over The Bridge to make it three from three when she steps out in the Thousand Guineas (1600m). The Ciaron Maher-trained filly has created a big impression in her brief career, particularly with the way she overcame adversity to win the Group 3 Scarborough Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield last start. She was posted wide throughout and forced to work close to the speed but still found plenty when challenged, suggesting there is considerable improvement to come. The form from that race stacks up nicely, with runner-up Ghana's Akan providing a useful link to Pretty Baby, one of the leading chances here. The daughter of Written Tycoon faces a significant rise in distance and will need to overcome barrier 13, but she has already demonstrated an excellent combination of tactical speed and determination. Mark Zahra takes the ride, and if he can slot her into a reasonable position without burning too much petrol, she has the ability to take the next step and claim Group 1 honours at just her third career start.

Saint George appeals as one of the better chances in a wide-open Caulfield Cup (2400m), with several factors pointing towards a return to his best. The Ciaron Maher-trained grey was building an impressive record earlier this preparation, winning consecutive handicaps at Flemington and Caulfield over 2000m before finishing runner-up to stablemate Zahrann in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m). What makes those performances particularly appealing is the weight he carried, lumping 58.5kg on two occasions and 61.5kg in the other, compared with the luxurious 53.5kg he gets on Saturday. His last-start effort in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) was well below expectations, but he failed to handle the Heavy conditions and is entitled to bounce back on a firmer surface. The 2400m holds no fears given his European staying form, which includes a victory over 2916m, while barrier two gives Craig Williams the opportunity to conserve ground and have him within striking distance when the pressure goes on. With a substantial weight drop, a favourable draw and conditions in his favour, Saint George looks well placed to deliver a career-best performance.