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Ballarat Racing Tips for July 27 – Last start winner is value at $11

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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  • Lancetta (Race 3) returns off an encouraging run and is primed to win.
  • Bismark (Race 5) boasts strong track record and faces a modest field.
  • Newcombe (Race 9) seeks back-to-back victories after a decisive breakthrough.
Ballarat synthetic tips - 07.07
Monday's Ballarat synthetic meeting features 10 races. (Getty)
Ballarat racing takes place on Monday, July 27, with a provincial program set down for Ballarat Synthetic.

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which is one of two from around Australia on Monday that we cover in our daily tips. 

Race 3 No.12- Lancetta


Lancetta can go close in Race 3. The Ciaron Maher mare has had just the two starts and was solid on debut with a 5th at Cranbourne last year before returning from a year off the scene with an encouraging 3rd on the Ballarat Synthetic over the 1500m on June 30. She was just a tad too keen in the early to middle stages but had enough in the tank to challenge them late, finishing half a length off the winner and going just two lengths slower than standard, which is the second best figure that any horse in this race has produced. She draws wide and might have to settle back but will have improvement to come at her second run back and with any luck finding a nice spot in the big field, she can prevail late in the piece. 

Race 5 No.1- Bismark


Bismark is worth plenty of thought in Race 5. The four-year-old didnt do huge amounts in his return to racing late last month when 7th over the 1500m on the Ballarat Synthetic but the race shape went against with the field crawling along early, while he was warming up late with the second fastest last 200m. Question marks on his fitness heading into this with just one run under the belt but he was a winner when stepping from the 1600m to the 2000m last year off a two-month break, while his best performance so far came over the 2100m on this surface at Ballarat last year when a dominant four-length winner, going a very respectable four-lengths faster than standard benchmark, which is a better figure than what any rival in this race has produced. This is not a strong lineup that he faces and from barrier 5, he should enjoy the favours. 

Race 9 No.4- Newcombe


Newcombe can just about make it back to back wins when he steps out in Race 9. The four-year-old headed into his last run as a 17-start Maiden and was battling away on Heavy surfaces on country tracks but he clearly liked the switch to the Synthetic, settling handy in a strongly run affair before clocking the fastest last 200m to break the drought. He had to do it the hard way as well, when held up and engaging in a bumping duel from the 400m to the 200m, while he ran respectable time for this grade, going 1.6 lengths slower than standard benchmark, which is the best last start figure of any runner in the race. He is likely to enjoy a similar setup here and is no worse off at the weights with the 1.5kg claimer, Sarah Field, to ride. She has provided a 60% profit on turnover when combining with the stable. 

Verdict

Ballarat Racing Tips
Best Bet1: Lancetta Race 3 Winner @29/10 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Bismark Race 5 Winner @10/1 at picklebet - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Newcombe Race 9 Winner @10/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Lancetta
Race 3 Winner
@29/10 - 1 Unit
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Bismark
Race 5 Winner
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Newcombe
Race 9 Winner
@10/1 - 1 Unit
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