Flemington Racing Tips for September 12 – Arkansaw Kid value at $17 in the Bobbie Lewis

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which features the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes. 

Jennivamoose can go close in Race 5 at Flemington, the Group 3 Archer Stakes. The Ciaron Maher-trained mare really began to hit her straps last campaign and has been a late maturer, picking up three wins from six starts. She was fourth in this race last year at the back end of that preparation and looks to have come back in excellent order. She resumed with a third placing in the Travis Harrison Cup over 1800m before again finishing third over 2000m at Caulfield last start. She drew the widest of the 15 runners on that occasion and kept coming strongly. The daughter of Vadamos gets up to her pet trip of 2500m after going 11.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark last time. She should have further improvement to come third-up and draws to save a stack of ground from the inside barrier.

Sass Appeal can bounce back in Race 6. The Danny O'Brien-trained mare was a little disappointing as a $2.10 favourite at Caulfield last time, tasting defeat for just the second time in her career when finishing fourth behind Fancify. She was forced to work forward from a wide barrier, while the winner was able to dictate out in front and along the rails, with Sass Appeal fading into fourth position. The daughter of So You Think is capable of much better and gets back to her pet track at Flemington, where she is unbeaten in four starts, with three of those wins coming over the 1400m. Third-up last campaign, she improved five lengths on benchmark figures when going from a Seymour maiden victory to winning over this track and trip. She draws very favourably in barrier four and is expected to bounce back.

Arkansaw Kid shapes as a value play in the Bobbie Lewis Quality. Oliveanotherday will be very hard to beat, but Arkansaw Kid has snuck under the radar and is around $17 in early markets. He can be forgiven for his last-start failure at Caulfield in the Regal Roller Stakes, when posted wide without cover before pulling up with a poor recovery. Third-up last year, he claimed this race when going 15 lengths faster than standard, which is the second-best figure any horse in this race has produced in the past two years. A lot will depend on how the straight is playing on Saturday as he draws towards the inside, but he is proven down the Flemington 1200m and should be ready to peak third-up.

Sheza Alibi is the clear top pick in the feature of the day, the Makybe Diva Stakes, after resuming with a runner-up finish in the Winx Stakes (1400m) at Randwick behind Autumn Glow. The winner out of that has been beaten just once in her career, ironically by Sir Delius in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m during the autumn. Sir Delius is second favourite after the barrier draw but Sheza Alibi has the fitness advantage and lost no admirers whatsoever first-up when back after being slowly away before being left with the task of chasing Autumn Glow. The Moody/Coleman mare continued to finish strongly and recorded the fastest final 200m of the race to get within a length of the winner. Last autumn, she exploded second-up to take out the Randwick Guineas over 1600m and she is also a previous second-up winner at Flemington. This is probably her toughest assignment outside of her last start, with some seasoned Group 1 performers engaged, including Mr Brightside, but she draws perfectly in barrier seven and is the one to beat.