Cranbourne Racing Tips for October 23 – Run Harry Run a strong bet in Cox Plate Eve meeting

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which comes on the eve of the Cox Plate, which is set to be run and won at Flemington on Saturday.

Karren can go on with the job in Race 3. The locally trained galloper has made an encouraging start to her career, finishing runner-up on debut over 1100m at Geelong after racing keenly before producing a dominant victory at Bendigo over 1300m. She settled much better on that occasion, enjoying a soft run on the speed before putting her rivals away to score by two lengths. The form from her debut has also stacked up, with three subsequent winners emerging from that race. She rises to Benchmark 70 grade but should have further improvement to come, while the step up to 1400m looks in her favour. Expect her to settle handy and feature prominently at the business end.

Itazura is worth thought in Race 4 for the Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman stable. The gelding has been tried over longer distances this preparation, including the 2000m at Mornington last time, where he finished sixth in a race that has since produced four winners. However, his best figures this campaign came over 1400m when winning first-up at Flemington, going more than eight lengths faster than standard benchmark, before finishing sixth in a Benchmark 84 at Caulfield. He drops in grade and returns to a more suitable distance here. With Regal Tycoon and a couple of others likely to ensure a genuine tempo, expect him to settle in the running line and finish strongly at an attractive price.

Run Harry Run should be hard to beat in the VOBIS Gold Star (1400m). The Lindsay Park-trained galloper has been in solid touch this preparation, finishing third at Flemington two starts ago before settling handy and going down narrowly to Regal Zeus in the Testa Rossa Stakes at Caulfield last time. His most recent performance was seven lengths faster than standard benchmark, the second-best last-start figure of any runner in this field, while his previous efforts were even stronger on the figures. He meets Regal Zeus 2.5kg better at the weights and draws perfectly in barrier four, allowing him to settle among the first few without working too hard early. Cranbourne should suit his racing pattern, and this looks a suitable opportunity to return to winning form.

Esmahli gets his chance in Race 7. The promising four-year-old has finished runner-up in both runs this preparation, resuming over 1000m at Caulfield before another narrow defeat at Flemington on a Heavy track. He drew wide on both occasions and was particularly good first-up, making ground in a slowly run race to get as close as he did. Last time, he chased home Hanky Alpha down the grandstand side at Flemington, where the inside section of the track appeared to be slightly superior at that stage of the meeting. Hanky Alpha relished the conditions, but Esmahli was far from disgraced. He has won three of his seven career starts and placed on another three occasions. Barrier three should allow him to settle in a stalking position, while Nadia Daniels' 3kg claim is another positive. He looks to have a class edge on several of his rivals and ticks plenty of boxes.