Melbourne Cup Tips - Buckaroo primed to go one better on the first Tuesday in November

Of the 24 runners, 17 had their most recent start in Australia, and nine come via the Caulfield Cup — a proven form reference with six Cup winners since 2000. Half Yours heads that group after winning the Caulfield Cup in a race run 13.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark, the best figure among the local form lines. 

River Of Stars and Presage Nocturne were excellent behind him, finishing 2nd and 4th respectively, producing the second fastest and fastest last 200m splits of the race.

Buckaroo represents the Cox Plate form, and that’s significant — six of the past 25 Melbourne Cup winners have emerged from that route, despite far fewer runners. 

His runner-up to Via Sistina in the weight-for-age championship rated +11.1 lengths above benchmark, matching the figures of Verry Elleegant and Gold Trip before their Cup wins. The Irish-bred seven-year-old has been a model of consistency this spring and looks to have peaked perfectly.

International depth again adds intrigue. Al Riffa, the Irish St Leger and Curragh Cup winner, brings genuine Group 1 class but must shoulder 59 kg — a weight not carried to victory since Think Big in 1975. German import Flatten The Curve and Japanese raider Chevalier Rose add global flair but must overcome the Flemington tempo and softer going. The lightly weighted Goodie Two Shoes (51.5 kg) gives Joseph O’Brien a two-pronged attack, while the Geelong Cup winner Torranzino aims to replicate Dunaden’s 2011 double after a tough win on a soft 7 surface.

Soft conditions are likely with heavy rain in the lead-up, meaning proven wet-trackers like Buckaroo, Half Yours, Presage Nocturne, Arapaho, and River Of Stars look advantaged. 

Smokin’ Romans and Changingoftheguard look the most likely to roll forward and control the tempo, with Gilded Water and Half Yours just off them. Torranzino and Arapaho could press on from middle gates, while Valiant King and River Of Stars should settle midfield with cover. Buckaroo maps to get a perfect run one off the fence, just worse than midfield, ideally placed to launch late under Craig Williams. Al Riffa and Presage Nocturne will likely drift back from wide draws but both possess powerful finishes if the pace is genuine.

Expect a steady first 1000 m before building from the halfway point — and with only one natural leader, a bunching field could favour the strong closers with acceleration. If the rain arrives and the track chops up, look for those drawn wider in lanes 6–10 to be running on best late.

The top four in the market (Half Yours, Valiant King, Presage Nocturne and Al Riffa) are obviously in the mix but the Cox Plate has been a superior form reference to the Melbourne Cup in recent times and Buckaroo’s run behind Via Sistina was outstanding, while his form prior to that was equally as impressive in weight-for-age contests. He profiles almost identically to Verry Elleegant before her 2021 triumph and carries 57 kg, a weight modern Cup winners have handled comfortably. He’s drawn ideally, handles wet ground, and Chris Waller’s decision to back him up mirrors the path taken with his 2021 winner. His closing sectionals this prep rank top three among all runners over 2000 m–2400 m, and with Craig Williams aboard — a past Cup winner — he looks ready to bring that to the two miles. If he stays the trip, he’s simply the class horse in the race.

Torranzino ($41) brings the underrated Geelong Cup form, which has produced three Cup winners since 2000. He meets Valiant King 1.5 kg better for a brave runner-up in the Bart Cummings and stays all day. Celine Gaudray will be out to join Michelle Payne as a female jockey to have claimed the Melbourne Cup and just needs to slide across before the first bend to slot into a forward spot. If the tempo is moderate, Torranzino is a great chance to be right there at the business end, while a Soft track also enhances his chances. 

Goodie Two Shoes ($51) is the international wildcard. The Joseph O’Brien-trained mare gets in with just 51.5 kg and was strong over 2816 m in Ireland, running third in the G2 Lillie Langtry. O’Brien has twice produced Cup winners with similar lightly raced European stayers, and she’s thrived in quarantine at Werribee. If the race turns tactical and the tempo backs off mid-race, she could be the one charging late down the outside to blow exotics wide open.