Flemington Racing Tips for Melbourne Cup Day – Four best bets for Cup day

Here are our best bets from the meeting, with the Melbourne Cup scheduled for 3pm AEST, which is Race 7 of 10 on the programme.

Keen on Katoto in Race 3. The Chris Waller-trained filly has won just once from five career starts but has shown plenty of promise and looks well placed stepping up to the 1800m. She resumed with a fourth in BM64 company at Warwick Farm before tackling the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield, where she settled back and raced keenly in the early stages on a day that favoured the leaders. The daughter of Wootton Bassett stuck on well to finish fifth behind Regal Ambition, who has since run third in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas before winning The Vanity at Flemington on Derby Day. That looks a strong form reference for this, and Katoto has been kept up to the mark with a jumpout in the interim. James McDonald rides, and with the rise in trip looking ideal, expect her to settle off the speed before issuing a serious challenge late in the piece.

Going with Gin Twist in The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m). The Hayes-trained filly has finished down the track in her two runs this preparation, but this looks a more suitable assignment and her best performances have come over the 1000m. She was seventh over the 1100m at Caulfield last time after racing on the speed and tiring late, but still recorded a figure 7.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark, the second-best last-start figure of any runner in this race. The daughter of Home Affairs produced a significant spike when third-up in her debut preparation, improving more than eight lengths on benchmark figures to win down the Flemington straight over the 1000m, defeating La Gitana. That performance was 8.5 lengths faster than standard benchmark, a better figure than any other runner in this race has produced. She draws towards the grandstand side, which was the place to be on Derby Day, and has attracted some early support in betting. Luke Currie rides, and at double-figure odds, she looks a nice value play.

Sabaj should be hard to beat in Race 6, the Asahi Super Dry Plate (1800m), which is the final race before the Melbourne Cup. The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained galloper has been competing against some of the better horses in the country in Group 1 company this preparation and will appreciate the drop in grade. He was four-wide in the Toorak Handicap (1600m) last time and finished seventh, beaten three lengths behind Lady Shenandoah, who has since come out and won the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes. Despite finishing 12th in the Memsie Stakes (1400m) earlier in the preparation, he closed off with the fastest final 200m, recording a figure 11.2 lengths faster than standard benchmark, while his Toorak effort was approximately 12 lengths faster than standard. He rises 3kg in weight but has a class edge on these and has shown he improves with racing, including a solid fourth in the Australian Cup (2000m) earlier this year. The five-year-old was also a dominant winner over the 1600m during last year's Melbourne Cup Carnival on a Soft 7, producing a figure around 15 lengths faster than standard. He draws barrier four, handles rain-affected ground and has Mark Zahra aboard. He ticks plenty of boxes and looks one of the better bets of the day.

Terilee can go close in the Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m). The Michael Kent-trained mare comes into this third-up after two encouraging runs this preparation, the first of those at Mornington over the unsuitable 1200m, where she finished third after recording the fastest final 400m and 200m. She then stepped up to Group 2 company in the Tristarc Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield and finished runner-up behind Shadhavar, with Concord Connie back in third before going on to finish second in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes on Derby Day. Terilee raced keenly in the early stages at Caulfield but was still good enough to finish ahead of Concord Connie, and she now meets Shadhavar 2kg better at the weights. The lightly raced five-year-old looks to have further improvement to come and produced a significant third-up spike last preparation, improving nearly eight lengths on benchmark figures when winning at Sandown. She should be at peak fitness now and looks a strong chance of turning the tables on Shadhavar.