Melbourne Cup Tips - Ciaron Maher with a strong hand, while forgotten galloper looks value pick at the odds

Vauban is a slight favourite for the Melbourne Cup after the barrier draw and will be out for redemption after a well-beaten 14th in last year’s edition of the race. The Irish galloper comes in with better form this year and the race does seem a bit weaker but he will need to be at his best against the likes of Buckaroo, who comes in with some good local form. 

Buckaroo eased in the market after drawing barrier 21 but was runner-up at Flemington in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) behind the dominant Cox Plate (2040m) winner, Via Sistina, before again landing in the runner-up slot behind Duke De Sessa, in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). Joao Moreira rides. 

Outside of Vauban, Absurde is the only other contender that had their most recent start outside of Australia. The Willie Mullins-trained galloper was a winner in the Chester Stakes (2916m) back in August. He was 7th in this race behind Soulcombe last year. 

Four gallopers in this year’s edition were present on the first Tuesday in November last year. Outside of Vauban and Absurde were Interpretation (6th) and Okita Soushi (11th). 

The Ciaron Maher pair come in with some good lead up form with Interpretation running on to fill the exacta behind Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup (2400m), while Okita Soushi claimed the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) at his most recent start. 

They didn't break the clock in the Geelong Cup with Onesmoothoperator going just 4.9 lengths faster than standard benchmark but Interpretation will stay all day and went 16.4 lengths faster than standard in last year’s edition of the race. Okita Soushi went 9.3 lengths faster than standard at the Valley. 

Best last start benchmark figures belong to Kovalica, who went 16.5 lengths faster than standard when 6th in the Cox Plate. Buckaroo went 14 lengths faster than standard in his Caulfield Cup run. 

The Sydney Cup (3200m), Circle Of Fire, has been out of sorts in recent times and will be looking to get back to his autumn form. He went 19.1 lengths faster than standard in Sydney, which is a better figure than what any horse in this race has produced in the past two years.

Will we see a truly run Melbourne Cup that develops into a genuine staying test?

Just Fine should inject a bit of tempo into the race, while Athabascan, Okita Soushi, Positivity and Sea King are among those that wont be too far away. I suspect the pressure will be well and truly on from the 800m and those that settle midfield or worse will come into play. But the likes of Moreira on Buckaroo wont want to be too far back in the 24-horse field early on. 

2024 Melbourne Cup Tips

2024 Melbourne Cup Best Bet

I am willing to take on the European gallopers, including Vauban and Absurde, after what they produced last year. Okita Soushi is going much better than this time a year ago when 11th in the Melbourne Cup, beaten eight lengths. The son of Galileo drops 5kg on his Moonee Valley Cup win and is likely to settle in the front half with Jamie Kah on board. He should be ready to peak over the two miles this time around and the year that he has had since coming to Australia sees the former Joseph O’Brien-trained galloper much more acclimatised for the big race. 

2024 Melbourne Cup Value Bet

Warp Speed is a bit of a forgotten horse in the betting markets after a disappointing effort in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) that saw him well beaten in 13th position in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). The six-year-old did not handle the Soft track at all that day and is expected to be a different horse on top of the ground, while the 3200m suits much better. The Japanese galloper has some excellent form over the two miles with a 5th in the Group 1 Tenno Sho in Japan two starts ago and will strip much fitter for this, given his Caulfield run was his first since April. He draws barrier 3 and if it was just the Soft track at Caulfield that bought about his undoing, the odds on offer look very tempting.