Turnbull Stakes Tips - Runner-by-Runner Guide to the Flemington Group 1
- Runner-by-Runner Guide to the Turnbull Stakes
- Will Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior be too good?
- Who will take out the Flemington Group 1?
A Group 1 race run over 2000m at Flemington run at set weights and penalties, the Turnbull Stakes is classic lead-up for the Melbourne Spring Carnival feature races.
First run in 1865, it has been won by some champion horses including Wakeful (1903), Rising Fast (1954), Galilee (1966) and Makybe Diva (2005).
Our thoughts and betting plays for the race can be found below. Get value odds at BoomBet.
1. Romantic Warrior (11)
18 Individual Hong Kong-trained horses have raced 47 times in Australia for just the single win but few have boasted the credentials of Romantic Warrior.
He enters Australia as the 10th ranked horse in the world and has managed 10 wins from just 14 career race starts.
The Cox Plate at The Valley will be his grand final but he will meet a much better field that day and although he won’t be fully wound up, he is the deserving favourite on ratings.
2. Gold Trip (18)
The 2023 Melbourne Cup winner returned to the races in a benchmark 100 at The Valley where he made up considerable ground late to finish just over a length off the winner Young Werther.
He was 1.9 lengths behind Smokin’ Romans in this race last year before attempting the Spring treble which of course culminated in the win in our greatest race.
He’ll be fitter second up but Mark Zahra will need one of his best from barrier 18.
3. Smokin’ Romans (17)
As mentioned, he won the race last year and went on to run a credible 7th, beaten 2.3 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup.
He closed out his autumn campaign when beaten two lengths in the Australian Cup and he’ll need to recapture that form to be a chance in a race of this quality.
He’s capable and the triple-figure odds seem ridiculous.
4. Francesco Guardi (7)
Was a dominant winner of the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup this time last year when scoring by 3.75 on a heavy track.
Returned to the races after almost a year out and both runs so far this prep have been full of merit.
He’ll appreciate both the step up in distance as well as the barrier, and although he’ll need to take a big step up in grade, he looks well placed.
5. West Wind Blows (8)
The Irish have sent over the lightly raced West Wind Blows to tackle the Australian Spring Carnival and he makes his debut on Saturday at headquarters.
The son of Teofilo has won five of his 12 career race starts and been unplaced just twice.
He ran ninth in the Epsom Derby as a younger horse and this would be his first win at Group 1 level albeit in a country that has plenty.
No doubt Simon and Ed Crisford have bigger plans for him this spring and he’ll only improve on whatever he produces in this event.
6. Emissary (5)
Has had four attempts at Group 1 level for just the one placing which was a second in last year’s Melbourne Cup behind Gold Trip.
It usually takes him a few runs to get going in his preparations but with Jamie Kah steering from barrier five he should get a nice run in transit.
7. Osipenko (7)
The Chris Waller-trained Osipenko is a horse with a huge amount of natural ability and while he is yet to break through at the highest level, he’s been competitive for the majority of his short career.
The four-year-old was beaten half a length in the Caulfield Guineas this time last year and was more than competitive against the older horses during the spring in the George Ryder and Doncaster.
Drawn well and one of the leading chances.
8. Uncle Bryn (1)
Couldn’t have been much more impressive when winning the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield at his third run this prep last time out.
That was his seventh win from just 21 career starts and with natural improvement, he can run a cheeky race.
He’ll bring in a fitness edge over a few of his rivals and is yet to miss place from three runs at 2000m.
9. Berkeley Square (14)
Has failed to win in four starts at a much lower level so far this prep.
There is no doubt he has shown ability, especially as a younger horse, but I’m not sure he is up to winning a Group 1 of this standard.
10. Bank Maur (4)
Wasn’t beaten far in the Group 1 Australian Guineas at this track earlier in the year and followed that effort up with a nice win in the Group 2 Alistair Clark Stakes at The Valley.
His two runs so far this prep have been full of merit and he’ll appreciate the step up to 2000m now.
One that is well over the odds and could run a place.
11. Soulcombe (2)
This Chris Waller-trained son of Frankel is a progressive type with plenty of upside who has won five times from 13 career starts.
This includes a win in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes first up at Caulfield where he showed his sharp turn of foot to storm over his rivals late.
He started slowly in the Underwood Stakes last start which probably cost him a winning chance and he has a good record here at headquarters.
Drawn well and is one of the leading chances of knocking off the favourite.
12. Duke De Sessa (12)
Made his Australian racing debut for the Maher and Eustace team in the Doncaster where h was beaten 3.4 lengths behind Mr Brightside.
Didn’t get going in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes first up and will take plenty of benefit out of the run into this.
Will appreciate the sharp step up in distance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a nice race without being a winning chance.
13. Spanish Mission (10)
The Peter Moody-trained horse was transferred to the stable after running third in the 2021 Melbourne Cup behind Verry Elleegant.
He finished third in the Australian Cup the following autumn but has had plenty of issues ever since.
Didn’t fire a shot first up in the Makybe Diva and the market suggests he is no chance in this.
14. El Bodegon (9)
Third in the Cox Plate this time last year but has shown little since.
He has been placed in nine of his 15 career race starts, five of those unplaced runs have come in his last six trips to the races.
15. Right You Are (16)
Has managed 10 wins from 24 career race starts albeit at a lower level.
Got his chance in his first Group 1 last time out in the Underwood Stakes where he ran really well for fifth, beaten just over two lengths.
The seven-year-old gelding is as honest as the day is long and although he will have to contend with a tricky draw, he represents good each-way value at his current price.
16. Lunar Flare (15)
Proved herself a talented staying mare when winning the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m here at Flemington back in May, booking her place in the Melbourne Cup.
That will be her target and she is looking for further at this stage in the prep.
17. El Patroness (3)
The 2022 Australian Oaks winner is capable of producing a rating high enough to be competitive in this but she always seems to threaten without winning.
She will be required to carry just 53kg should she gain a start and has drawn an ideal barrier.
18. Goldman (13)
Another that will need a scratching to gain a start.
The Waterhouse and Bott-trained five-year-old is a very progressive type who has five wins from just nine career starts.
Verdict
SELECTIONS
1st: Romantic Warrior
2nd: Soulcombe
3rd: Right You Are
4th: Gold Trip
1st: Romantic Warrior
2nd: Soulcombe
3rd: Right You Are
4th: Gold Trip
Romantic Warrior
To Win
@1/1 - 5 Units
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