Rosehill Racing Tips for October 10 – Gringotts to defy weight and barrier in $1.5 million Alan Brown Stakes

Here are our best bets from the meeting, which comes on a massive day of racing with three Group One races set to be run and won in Melbourne for Caulfield Guineas Day.

Cormier is worth a look in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) for the three-year-olds, one of the key lead-ups towards the Spring Champion Stakes and potentially the Victoria Derby later in the spring. The Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich-trained colt comes out of the Golden Rose (1400m), where he was beaten around six lengths after beginning awkwardly and settling well back, but that was against the absolute top graders of his age and he still went close to nine lengths faster than standard benchmark, the best last-start figure of any runner here. Most of his rivals step out of considerably weaker races and he now gets a significant drop in grade under set weights. It's also worth noting that at the third run of his debut campaign he improved by more than three lengths on benchmark figures when stepping from a Rosehill handicap into the Group 1 J.J. Atkins (1600m), where he finished runner-up. He draws barrier 1 and should be able to settle closer with Aaron Bullock aboard, who has an excellent strike rate for the stable. In a race containing plenty of unknowns, he appeals at the odds.

Happy to be with Chuchichaschtli in the Listed Tapp-Craig (1400m) for the three-year-olds. The Hawkes-trained filly has plenty to find on exposed form compared with some of these after only winning a maiden, but she did it in style at Warwick Farm last month, settling handy before getting the upper hand late over Love Story and going two lengths faster than standard benchmark. That form has already received a boost, with Love Story subsequently coming out and winning a strong maiden by three lengths, and we are banking on further upside from the daughter of Exceedance. She had trialled impressively leading into her debut, draws perfectly in barrier 2 and has attracted strong early market support since acceptances. This is a big rise in class, but she looks a promising filly with plenty more to offer.

Keen on Satono Glow in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) for the three-year-olds. The John O'Shea & Tom Charlton-trained filly has won three of her four starts and resumed with a strong performance over 1100m at Flemington last month to claim the Cap D'Antibes Stakes (1100m) ahead of Over Excited. The promising filly went 10.5 lengths faster than standard benchmark that day, a better figure than any of her rivals in this race have produced in their careers to date. During her debut preparation she improved by more than four lengths to win second-up and was unlucky when going down in her only other run, which came over 1200m at Randwick. She is likely to settle in the second half of the field and the race shape sets up nicely, with the likes of Paradoxium and Our Emperor capable of generating a solid tempo for her to launch at them late.

Keen on Gringotts in the Alan Brown Stakes (1400m), the pick of the 10 races at Rosehill and arguably a stronger contest than the two Group 1 handicaps in Melbourne. The warhorse has plenty to overcome from barrier 13 with 61kg, but he has performed under similar conditions before, including carrying 62kg to win the Big Dance (1600m) last year after overcoming traffic in a huge field, while he also won The Gong (1600m) with 61kg. His form this year has been rock solid, including a runner-up finish behind Autumn Glow in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), an unlucky fourth in the Doncaster Mile (1600m) and a last-start fifth behind Autumn Glow in the 7 Stakes (1600m) against genuine top-liners. He has the tactical speed to overcome the wide draw and his record over 1400m is outstanding, having placed in all four attempts at the trip. The seven-year-old rarely runs a bad race and should again give us a sight.